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Morning Call 7/13

|Includes: AIR, ALXN, AVGR, Bank of America Corporation (BAC), CHSP, CSX, DRI, FAST, GIS, IONS, JBLU, JUNO, MIK, OREX, PACW, TEVA, WLL, YUM

Morning Call

Wednesday, July 13th, 2016View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU16 +0.03%) are up +0.12% and European stocks are up +0.30% at a 2-week high on speculation central bank actions will be sufficient to contain the fallout from the Brexit vote. The BOE is expected to lower interest rates Thursday and Japanese Prime Minister Abe has ordered more fiscal stimulus. Strength in commodity producers is leading the overall market higher as the price of copper (HGU16 +1.42%) jumped +1.42% to a 2-1/4 month high. On the negative side, energy producers are lower as the price of crude oil (CLQ16 -1.26%) is down -1.37% after API data late yesterday showed U.S. crude stockpiles unexpectedly rose +2.2 million bbl. Asian stocks settled higher: Japan +0.84%, Hong Kong +0.46%, China +0.37%, Taiwan +0.18%, Australia +0.66%, Singapore +0.30%, South Korea +0.85%, India +0.03%. Asian stock markets followed other global bourses higher as China's Shanghai Composite rose to a 2-3/4 month high and Japan's Nikkei Stock Index climbed to a 1-month high.

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.05%) is down -0.11%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.19%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.12%.

Sep T-note prices (ZNU16 +0.18%) are up +5 ticks.

Eurozone May industrial production fell -1.2% m/m, a bigger decline than expectations of -0.8% m/m.

The China Jun trade balance shrank to a surplus of $48.11 billion, a bigger surplus than expectations of $45.65 billion. Jun exports fell -4.8% y/y, a smaller decline than expectations of -5.0% y/y, and Jun imports fell -8.4% y/y, a bigger decline than expectations of -6.2% y/y.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) weekly MBA mortgage applications (previous +14.2% with purchase sub-index +4.3% and refi sub-index +20.8%), (2) Jun import price index (expected +0.5% m/m and -4.6% y/y, May +1.4% m/m and -5.0% y/y), (3) the Treasury's auction of $12 billion of 30-year T-bonds, (4) Jun monthly budget statement (expected +$23.0 billion, May -$52.507 billion), (5) Fed Beige Book, (6) Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker (non-voter) speaks on the economic outlook at an event in Philadelphia, and (7) EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.

Russell 1000 companies reporting earnings today: CSX (consensus $0.44), Yum Brands (0.74), PacWest Bancorp (0.69).

U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: none.

Equity conferences this week include: none.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Bank of America (BAC +2.50%) was rated a new 'Buy' at Berenberg with a price target of $15.

Whiting Petroleum (WLL +12.53%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Neutral' at Credit Suisse.

Darden Restaurants (DRI +0.29%) was downgraded to 'Market Perform' from 'Outperform' at Wells Fargo Securities.

Alexion Pharmaceuticals (ALXN +0.04%) was rated a new 'Outperform' at RBC Capital Markets with a 12-month price target of $188.

Michaels Cos (MIK +0.14%) dropped over 3% in after-hours trading after it started a secondary offering of 11 million shares of common stock.

Chesapeake Lodging Trust (CHSP +1.09%) slipped nearly 1% in after-hours trading after it said Q2 pro forma revpar rose +2.2%, below an April 28 forecast of up +4%-6%, citing continued headwinds at the start of the second half of the year.

AAR Corp. (AIR +4.33%) sank 10% in after-hours trading after it said it sees 2017 EPS continuing operations of $1.30-$1.40, well below consensus of $2.07.

Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. (TEVA +3.00%) gained nearly 2% in after-hours trading after it raised guidance on Q2 revenue to $4.9 billion-$5.0 billion from a prior view of $4.8 billion-$4.9 billion.

Fastenal (FAST -3.46%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at Edward Jones.

Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (non-voter) said the Fed can continue to be patient on raising interest rates as "there's not a huge urgency to raise rates because inflation is coming up low."

Juno Therapeutics (JUNO +1.68%) surged 33% in after-hours trading after the FDA removed the clinical hold on Juno's Phase 2 study of JCAR015 to treat lymphoblastic leukemia.

Avinger (AVGR -0.44%) lowered guidance on 2016 revenue to $19 million-$23 million from a prior view of $25 million-$30 million.

Orexigen Therapeutics (OREX +0.50%) rallied over 4% in after-hours trading after its top shareholder, Baupost, said it may convert/exercise notes/warrants of up to 4.7 million common shares.

MARKET COMMENTS

Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU16 +0.03%) this morning are up +2.50 points (+0.12%). Tuesday's closes: S&P 500 +0.70%, Dow Jones +0.66%, Nasdaq +0.50%. The S&P 500 on Tuesday climbed to a fresh all-time high and closed moderately higher on carry-over support from a +1.7% rally in European stocks on reduced political uncertainty in Britain with Home Secretary May prepared to take over as the UK's next prime minister. Stocks were also boosted by a good beginning to U.S. Q2 company earnings season as Alcoa jumped 5% after it reported better-than-expected Q2 earnings.

Sep 10-year T-note prices (ZNU16 +0.18%) this morning are up +5 ticks. Tuesday's closes: TYU6 -20.50, FVU6 -9.25. Sep T-notes on Tuesday fell to a 1-week low and closed sharply lower on reduced safe-haven demand with the the rally in the S&P 500 to a new record high and on hawkish comments from Cleveland Fed President Mester who said she thinks "a gradual upward tilt for interest rates is appropriate for the U.S. economy."

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.05%) this morning is down -0.110 (-0.11%), EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0021 (+0.19%) and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.13 (+0.12%). Tuesday's closes: Dollar Index -0.130 (-0.13%), EUR/USD +0.0003 (+0.03%), USD/JPY +1.89 (+1.84%). The dollar index on Tuesday closed lower on the larger-than-expected decline in U.S. May JOLTS job openings to a 5-month low and strength in GBP/USD on reduced political uncertainty in Britain as Home Secretary May is prepared to take over as the UK's next prime minister. USD/JPY jumped to a 2-week high after Japanese Prime Minister Abe said he wants to "accelerate" Japan's exit from deflation, which suggests he favors additional yen-negative stimulus measures.

Aug WTI crude oil (CLQ16 -1.26%) prices this morning are down -64 cents (-1.37%) and Aug gasoline prices (RBQ16 -1.84%) are down -0.0268 (-1.87%). Tuesday's closes: CLQ6 +2.04 (+4.56%), RBQ6 +0.0466 (+3.37%). Aug crude oil and gasoline on Tuesday closed sharply higher on a weaker dollar, the rally in the S&P 500 to a record high, and expectations for Wednesday's weekly EIA data to show that U.S. crude inventories fell -3.5 million bbl.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR07/13/2016

    Wednesday, July 13, 2016
US 0700 ET Weekly MBA mortgage applications, previous +14.2% with purchase sub-index +4.3% and refi sub-index +20.8%.
  0830 ET Jun import price index expected +0.5% m/m and -4.6% y/y, May +1.4% m/m and -5.0% y/y.
  1030 ET EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
  1300 ET Treasury auctions $12 billion of 30-year T-bonds.
  1400 ET Jun monthly budget statement expected +$23.0 billion, May -$52.507 billion.
  1400 ET Fed Beige Book.
  1800 ET Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker (non-voter) speaks on the economic outlook at an event in Philadelphia.
    Thursday, July 14, 2016
US 0830 ET Weekly initial unemployment claims expected +11,000 to 265,000, previous -16,000 to 254,000. Weekly continuing claims expected +6,000 to 2.130 million, previous -44,000 to 2.124 million.
  0830 ET Jun PPI final demand expected +0.3% m/m and -0.1% y/y, May +0.4% m/m and -0.1% y/y. Jun PPI ex food & energy expected +0.1% m/m and +1.0% y/y, May +0.3% m/m and +1.2% y/y.
  0830 ET USDA weekly Export Sales.
  1100 ET Treasury announces amount of 10-year TIPS (previous $11 billion) to be auctioned Jul 21.
  1115 ET Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart (non-voter) speaks at the Rocky Mountain Economic Summit in Victor, Idaho.
  1900 ET Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan (non-voter) speaks at the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum in St. Louis about economic conditions and the role of monetary policy.
UK 0700 ET BOE announces interest rate decision and asset purchase target, expected -25 bp cut in benchmark rate to 0.25% from 0.50% and asset purchase target to remain unchanged at 375 billion pounds.
CHI 2200 ET China Q2 GDP expected +1.6% q/q and +6.6% y/y, Q1 +1.1% q/q and +6.7% y/y.
  2200 ET China Jun industrial production expected +5.9% y/y, May +6.0% y/y.
  2200 ET China Jun retail sales expected +9.9% y/y, May +10.0% y/y.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR07/13/2016

Company Ticker Time Event Description Period Estimate
Ionis Pharmaceuticals Inc IONS 8:30 R&D Day Y 2016  
General Mills Inc GIS 10:00 Investor Day Y 2016  
CSX Corp CSX Aft-mkt Q2 2016 Earnings Release Q2 2016 0.439
Yum! Brands Inc YUM Aft-mkt Q2 2016 Earnings Release Q2 2016 0.74
JetBlue Airways Corp JBLU   June 2016 Sales and Revenue Release - Traffic Results 2016  
PacWest Bancorp PACW   Q2 2016 Earnings Release Q2 2016 0.689