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Morning Call 6/27






Morning Call: U.S. And Chinese Stocks Weaker On Trade Risks; Sep E-Mini S&Ps Down -0.39%; Shanghai Composite Closed Down -1.10% At A 2-Year Low; Jul COMEX Copper Down -0.38% At A 3-Month Low. - 1 hour ago

Overnight Markets And News

Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU18 -0.49%) this morning are down -0.39% as ongoing global trade tensions weigh on stocks prices. Metal producers and mining stocks are weaker with Jul COMEX copper (HGN18 -0.62%) down -0.38% at a 3-month low on concern a global slowdown from ongoing trade tensions will undercut demand for industrial metals. European stocks are up +0.09% as strength in energy producers lifted the overall market with Aug WTI crude oil (CLQ18 +0.77%) up +0.86% at a new 1-month high. Weakness in European bank stocks, led by a tumble in Deutsche Bank AG to a record low, had weighed on the overall European market as the Euro Stoxx 50 fell to a 2-3/4 month low before recovering. Asian stocks settled lower: Japan -0.70%, Hong Kong -1.82%, China -1.10%, Taiwan -0.38%, Australia -0.03%, Singapore -0.80%, South Korea -0.17%, India -0.77%. China's Shanghai Composite fell to a fresh 2-year low as trade tensions and a weaker yuan weighed on stock prices. The Chinese yuan fell to a 6-1/4 month low of 6.6183 per dollar today.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.25%) is up +0.04%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD -0.29%) is down -0.21%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY-0.06%) is down -0.13%.

Sep 10-year T-note prices (ZNU18 +0-090) are up +8.5 ticks at a 3-week high as stock weakness boosts safe-haven demand for government debt.

China May industrial profits were up +21.1% y/y and from Jan through May are up +16.5% year-to-date y/y.

Eurozone May M3 money supply rose +4.0% y/y, stronger than expectations of +3.8% y/y.

UK Jun nationwide house prices rose +0.5% m/m and +2.0% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.2% m/m and +1.7% y/y.

UK Jun CBI retailing reported sales unexpectedly jumped +21 to a 9-month high of 32, stronger than expectations of -1 to 10.

U.S. Stock Preview

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Apr S&P CoreLogic composite-20 home price index (expected +0.4% m/m and +6.8% y/y, Mar +0.53% m/m and +6.79% y/y), (2) Jun Richmond Fed manufacturing index (expected -1 to 15, May +19 to 16), (3) Jun Conference Board U.S. U.S. consumer confidence index (expected unch at 128.0, May +2.4 to 128.0), (4) Treasury auctions $34 billion of 2-year T-notes, (5) Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic (voter) speaks at an event in Birmingham, AL, (6) Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan (non-voter) speaks at an event in Houston, TX.

Notable Russell 1000 earnings reports today include: Lennar Corp (consensus $0.44), IHS Markit (0.57).

U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: Uxin (NASDAQ:UXIN), Neon Therapeutics (NASDAQ:NTGN), HyreCar (NASDAQ:HYRE).

Equity conferences this week: Crane's Money Fund Symposium on Mon-Tue, BMO Chemicals Conference on Tue, JMP Securities Boston Real Estate Forum on Thu, Berenberg Blockchain Conference on Thu, GSMA Mobile World Congress Shanghai on Fri.

Market Comments

Sep S&P 500 E-minis (ESU18 -0.49%) this morning are down -10.75 points (-0.39%). Tuesday's closes: S&P 500 +0.22%, Dow Jones +0.12%, Nasdaq 100 +0.43%. The S&P 500 on Tuesday closed higher on slightly reduced trade tensions and the +4 point rise in the the U.S. Jun Richmond Fed manufacturing index to 20, stronger than expectations of -1 to 15. Energy stocks rallied after Aug WTI crude oil rose 3.60% to a 1-month high. Technology stocks rebounded after Monday's sharp sell-off. A bearish factor was the Conference Board's U.S. Jun consumer confidence report of -2.4 to 126.4, weaker than expectations of -0.5 to 127.5.

Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU18 +0-090) this morning are up +8.5 ticks at a 3-week high. Tuesday's closes: TYU8 -1.00, FVU8 -0.75. Sep 10-year T-notes closed slightly lower on supply pressures as the Treasury auctions $116 billion in T-notes and floating-rate notes this week. T-notes found support on the weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data on U.S. Jun consumer confidence and U.S. Apr S&P CoreLogic composite 20 home prices. T-note prices also received support from continued trade tensions that are dovish for Fed policy.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.25%) this morning is up +0.04 (+0.04%), EUR/USD (^EURUSD -0.29%) is down -0.0024 (-0.21%) and USD/JPY (^USDJPY -0.06%) is down -0.14 (-0.13%). Tuesday's closes: Dollar Index +0.383 (+0.41%), EUR/USD -0.0056 (-0.48%), USD/JPY +0.29 (+0.26%). The dollar index on Tuesday closed higher on weakness in the Chinese yuan which tumbled to a 6-month low against the dollar as escalation of U.S.-China trade tensions sent the Shanghai Stock Index down to a 2-year low. There was also weakness in EUR/USD after ECB Governing Council member Hansson said the ECB will remain "rather expansionary" even after the end of QE net purchases in December.

Metals this morning are mixed with Aug gold (GCQ18 -0.10%) +0.1 (+0.01%), July silver (SIN18 -0.43%) -0.050 (-0.31%), and July copper (HGN18 -0.62%) -0.012 (-0.38%) at a 3-month low. Tuesday's closes: Aug gold -9.00 (-0.71%), Jul silver -0.078 (-0.48%), Jul copper +0.05 (+0.17%). Metals on Tuesday settled mixed with Aug gold at a 6-1/2 month low and Jul silver at a 1-3/4 month low. Metals prices were undercut by a stronger dollar and by continued fund selling of gold as long gold positions in ETFs fell to a new 2-1/2 month low. Copper closed higher after LME copper inventories fell -2,425 MT to a 1-week low of 303,100 MT.

Aug WTI crude oil prices (CLQ18 +0.77%) this morning are up +61 cents (+0.86%) at a 1-month high and Aug gasoline (RBQ18 +0.88%) is up +1.66 (+0.81%) at a 1-week high. Tuesday's closes: Aug crude +2.45 (+3.60%), Aug gasoline +2.28 (+1.12%). Aug crude oil and gasoline on Tuesday closed sharply higher with Aug crude at a 1-month high and Aug gasoline at a 1-week high. Crude oil prices were boosted by uncertainty about Libyan oil supplies after a militia leader handed over control of several Libyan oil export terminals with a capacity of 800,000 bpd to a rival of the Tripoli National Oil Corp. Crude oil prices were also boosted by the U.S. State Department's demand that countries cut their Iranian oil imports to zero by Nov 4 as the U.S. ramps up sanctions on Iran. Crude oil prices were also boosted by expectations for Wednesday's EIA crude inventories to fall -2.75 million bbl. Crude oil prices were undercut by a stronger dollar and by Saudi Arabia's plan to boost its crude production in Jul to a record 10.8 million bpd.

Overnight U.S. Stock Movers

Post Holdings (POST -0.11%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at Vertical Group.

Twilio (TWLO +5.20%) was rated a new 'Buy' at Rosenblatt Securities with a price target of $70.

World Wrestling Entertainment (WWE +0.24%) jumped 8% in after-hours trading after it reached 5-year agreements with USA Network and Fox Sports for U.S. distribution of its Raw and SmackDown programs

Aerovironment (AVAV +6.83%) slid more than 6% in after-hours trading after it forecast full-year revenue of $290 million to $310 million, below consensus of $336.8 million.

Sonic (SONC +1.77%) fell 6% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 franchise comparable sales fell -0.2%, weaker than expectations of unchanged.

Allegheny Technologies (ATI +1.33%) was rated a new 'Overweight' at Stephens with a price target of $36.

Mammoth Energy Services (TUSK +0.18%) lost 1% in after-hours trading after it announced the launch of an underwritten public offering of 4.0 million shares of its common stock by certain selling stockholders.

Crestwood Equity Partners LP (CEQP +2.06%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at Goldman Sachs.

Amicus Therapeutics (@symbolPercentChange((FOLD +0.85%) dropped 6% in after-hours trading after it failed to get CMA application approval for a study of Pompe disease.

Star Bulk Carriers (SBLK +1.22%) fell nearly 7% in after-hours trading after holder Oaktree Capital Management is said to offer 5 million shares of its Star Bulk Carrier holdings via Morgan Stanley.

EuroDry (EDRY -3.28%) was rated a new 'Buy' at Noble Capital with a price target of $12.