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Morning Call 11/27




Conference calls.

Morning Call: Ramped Up U.S.-China Trade Tensions Undercuts Stock Prices; Dec E-Mini S&Ps Down -0.21%; Dec COMEX Copper Down -0.93% At A 1-1/2 Week Low. - 49 minutes ago

Overnight Markets And News

Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ18 -0.36%) this morning are down -0.21% and European stocks are down -0.19% after President Trump late yesterday said that additional tariffs on China are still likely. Trump told the WSJ he expects to move ahead with an increase on tariffs to 25% on $200 billion of Chinese goods and he's prepared to add tariffs of 10% or 25% to the final batch of $267 billion of Chinese goods "if we don't make a deal." Weakness in technology stocks is leading the overall market lower with Apple down almost 2% in pre-market trading after President Trump suggested a 10% tariff may be placed on iPhones and laptops made in China. Mining stocks and commodity producers are lower as well with Dec COMEX copper (HGZ18 -1.03%) down -0.93% to a 1-1/2 week low as threats from President Trump of more tariffs bolsters demand concerns for industrial metals. The slide in equities has boosted the safe-haven demand for government debt as the yield on the 10-year German bund fell to a 2-3/4 month low of 0.330%. Asian stocks settled mixed: Japan +0.64%, Hong Kong -0.17%, China -0.04%, Taiwan +0.14%, Australia +1.00%, Singapore -0.10%, South Korea +0.85%, India +0.45%. China's Shanghai Composite fell to a 3-1/2 week low on trade concerns, although Japan's Nikkei Stock Index climbed to a 2-week high on economic optimism after Adobe projected online shopping on Cyber Monday may hit $7.9 billion, up +19.7% y/y and the largest online shopping day of all time in the U.S.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.12%) is up +0.10% at a 1-1/2 week high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD -0.08%) is down -0.05% at a 1-1/2 week low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY +0.04%) is up +0.03% at a 1-1/2 week high.

Dec 10-year T-note prices (ZNZ18 +0-025) are up +1.5 ticks.

UK Nov CBI retailing reported sales rose +14 to 19, stronger than expectations of +5 to 10.

China Oct industrial profits rose +3.6% y/y, the smallest increase in 7 months.

Japan Oct PPI services prices rose +1.3% y/y, stronger than expectations of +1.2% y/y.

U.S. Stock Preview

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida is keynote speaker at the Clearings House 2018 annual conference in New York, (2) Sep FHFA house price index (expected +0.4%, Aug +0.3% m/m), (3) Sep S&P CoreLogic composite-20 home price index (expected +0.2% m/m and +5.3% y/y. Aug +0.09% m/m and +5.49% y/y), (4) Conference Board U.S. Nov consumer confidence index (expected -2.1 to 135.8, Oct +2.6 to 137.9), (5) Treasury auctions $40 billion 5-year T-notes, (6) Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic (voter), Kansas City Fed President Esther George (non-voter) and Chicago Fed President Charles Evans (non-voter) discuss he economy, regulation, financial innovation and the future of payments on a panel at a Clearing House conference in New York.

Notable Russell 1000 earnings reports today include: Rockwell Collins (consensus $1.99), (0.50), Eaton Vance (0.83), Nutanix (-0.27).

U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: none.

Equity conferences during the remainder of this week: Citi Basic Materials Conference on Tue-Wed, Credit Suisse Technology, Media & Telecom Conference on Tue-Wed, Jefferies Global Energy Conference on Tue-Wed, Evercore ISI HealthconX Conference on Tue-Wed, Piper Jaffray Health Care Conference on Tue-Thu, American Bankers Small Business Conference on Wed, Capital Research Global Mid-Cap Conference on Wed, Deutsche Bank Gaming, Lodging, Leisure & Restaurants One on One Conference on Wed, European Women in Technology Conference on Wed, Credit Suisse Industrials Conference on Wed-Thu, Deal Economy Conference on Thu, Inside FinTech with Blockchain Agenda Conference on Thu.

Market Comments

Dec S&P 500 E-minis (ESZ18 -0.36%) this morning are down -5.50 points (-0.21%). Monday's closes: S&P 500 +1.55%, Dow Jones +1.46%, Nasdaq 100 +2.31%. The S&P 500 on Monday closed higher on carry-over support from a rally in European stocks as Italian political risks eased after the Italian 10-year government bond yield tumbled to a 1-3/4 month low of 3.16% when Italy's populist government said it is studying scenarios for a lower 2019 budget deficit target. Stocks were also supported by signs of strength in U.S. consumer spending that is positive for the economy after data from Adobe showed purchases on Black Friday this year totaled $6.22 billion, up +23.6% y/y. Energy stocks saw some strength as crude oil prices rose +2.40%.

Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ18 +0-025) this morning are up +1.5 ticks. Monday's closes: TYZ8 -4.50, FVZ8 -3.50. Dec 10-year T-notes on Monday closed lower on a sharp rally in stocks that curbed safe-haven demand for T-notes, and on supply pressures as the Treasury auctions $129 billion of T-notes and floating-rate notes this week.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.12%) this morning is up +0.096 (+0.10%) at a 1-1/2 week high, EUR/USD (^EURUSD-0.08%) is down -0.0006 (-0.05%) at a 1-1/2 week low, and USD/JPY (^USDJPY +0.04%) is up +0.03 (+0.03%) at a 1-1/2 week high. Monday's closes: Dollar Index +0.158 (+1.16%), EUR/USD -0.0009 (-0.08%), USD/JPY +0.62 (+0.55%). The dollar index on Monday rallied to a 1-week high and closed higher on a rally in stocks that curbed safe-haven demand for the yen and pushed USD/JPY up to a 1-week high. The dollar was also boosted by an increase in T-note yields that improved the dollar's interest rate differentials.

Metals prices this morning are mixed with Dec gold (GCZ18 +0.11%) +1.1 (+0.09%), Dec silver (SIZ18 +0.32%) +0.025 (+0.18%), and Dec copper (HGZ18 -1.03%) -0.026 (-0.93%) at a 1-1/2 week low. Dec Comex gold (GCZ18) on Monday closed down -$0.80 an ounce (-0.07%) and Dec Comex silver (SIZ18) closed down -0.038 (-0.27%). Metals gave up early gains Monday and closed lower after the dollar index recovered from early weakness and rallied to a 1-week high. Also, Monday's sharp rally in stocks reduced safe-haven demand for precious metals. On the positive side, recent stock market volatility has boosted demand for gold as a store of wealth as long gold positions in ETFs rose to a 3-3/4 month high last Friday of 2,142 MT. Fund demand for silver is also positive for prices as long silver positions in ETFs rose to 532.038 million troy ounces last Friday, just below last Wednesday's 1-month high of 532.076 million troy ounces.

Jan WTI crude oil prices (CLF19 -0.12%) this morning are up +7 cent (+0.14%) and Jan gasoline (RBF19 -0.14%) is -0.10 (-0.07%). Jan WTI crude oil (CLF19) on Monday closed up +$1.21 per barrel (+2.40%) and Jan Brent crude (CBF19) closed up +$1.68 (+2.86%). Jan RBOB gasoline (RBF19) closed up +4.72 cents a gallon (+3.43%). The energy complex moved higher Monday on short-covering ahead of the G-20 meeting this weekend in Buenos Aires where Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salam will meet with Russian President Putin and will undoubtedly discuss an OPEC+ production cut for 2019. Crude prices also found support on expectations for Wednesday's weekly EIA crude inventories to decline by -1.5 million bbl. Crude prices plunged last week with Jan WTI crude slumping to a 13-month low Friday and Jan Brent crude dropping to a 1-year low on global oversupply concerns. Reports last week indicated that Saudi Arabian oil output has increased to a record 11.2 million bpd from 10.8-10.9 million bpd earlier in November. Also, last Wednesday's EIA crude inventories rose by +4.85 million bbl to an 11-1/2 month high, their ninth straight weekly increase.

Overnight U.S. Stock Movers

Apple (AAPL +1.35%) fell nearly 2% in pre-market trading after President Trump suggested a 10% tariff may be placed on iPhones and laptops made in China.

United Technologies (UTX -0.82%) gained more than 1% in pre-market trading after it said it will spin off its Otis Elevator and Carrier as independent companies and keep its aerospace business.

Diamondback Energy (FANG +4.22%) may move higher initially this morning after it was announced that it will replace Stericycle in the S&P 500 prior to the open of trade on Monday, Dec 3.

Maxim Integrated Products (MXIM +1.18%) may move higher initially this morning after it was announced that it will replace Aetna in the S&P 500 prior to the open of trade on Monday, Dec 3.

Lamb Weston Holdings (LW -0.96%) may move higher initially this morning after it was announced that it will replace Rockwell Collins in the S&P 500 prior to the open of trade on Monday, Dec 3.

CVS Health (CVS +3.54%) was rated a new 'Overweight' at Cantor Fitzgerald with a price target of $96.

Macerich (MAC +0.49%) was downgraded to 'Underweight' from 'Equal-Weight' at Morgan Stanley with a price target of $45.

Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY -0.38%) fell nearly 3% in after-hours trading after its Odivo drug combination failed to meet its endpoint of overall survival in its Phase 3 CheckMate -451 study of patients with extensive-stage small cell lung cancer.

Acadia Pharmaceuticals (ACAD +5.13%) dropped almost 6% in after-hours trading after it announced that it intends to sell $200 million of its common stock in an underwritten public offering.

Buckle (BKE +2.50%) slid 6% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 net sales of $215.1 million, below consensus of $218.5 million.

Abeona Therapeutics (ABEO +3.96%) lost nearly 4% in after-hours trading after the company announced the immediate termination of CEO Carsten Thiel due to personal misconduct.

Kosmos Energy Ltd (KOS +1.58%) fell 3% in after-hours trading after it announced a secondary public offering of 15 million shares if its common stock.

Ferroglobe PLC (GSM +1.06%) plunged 22% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 adjusted Ebitda of $45.0 million, weaker than consensus of $82.7 million.

Next Story

Morning Call: Reduced Italian political risks boosts stocks; Dec E-mini S&Ps up +1.13%; Euro Stoxx 50 up +1.13%; USD/JPY up +0.22% at a 1-week high. - Mon Nov 26, 6:41AM CST

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S&P 500 E-Mini





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Crude Oil WTI





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Maxim Integrated





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CVS Corp





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