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NYMEX Crude Down Move - Fundamental Or Technical - A Research

I would like to share my view on Crude down fall from 107.67$ to 42.42$.

Often there is a debate on why a Commodity /Stock/Currency moves up or moves down. It moves based on Fundamental News or it is technically weak/strong.

Fundamental Supporters, will say it is because of fundamental news. Technical Supporters, will say it is because of technical.

In my perspective both are important, technical analysis works best based on fundamental news. I am supporter of technical analysis and which is fueled by fundamental news.

I started my analysis based on Elliott Wave from late 2013. I was highly bullish and expected up move and started projecting my targets for crude on the upside.


Positional Up move if 105 holds support:
If crude supported by 105, upside targets are: 107.5-107.3, 108-108.3, 108.5-108.7, 109-109.3, 109.5-109.7, 110.3-110.6, 112-112.3, 112.5-112.7, 113.7-113.9.

My Positional View changed once, crude broken it's base support of 97$, and I became bearish.

Here below, I have given my charts and views which was given in my blog, chronologically.


CMP 97.83

As Crude broken all its supports (99.7, 98.5, 97Now I am fully bearish with Crude.

Based on My chart, I expect 96.2, 92, 88, 85, 81 Long Term Positional.


If crude restricted by 93.7, 96, I expect more fall in Crude.
Sell on rise is the strategy with SL 93.75 for targets: [[90.5-90.4-90.3]], 89.75, 88.5, [[87.5]], 86.8.


CMP 80.71
Based on my Monthly/Weekly chart, If crude resisted by 114.82, 112.21, I expect minimum 75, 72.5.
Other targets: 75.25-74.95, 72.75-72.35, 66-65.65, 63.3-63.05, 60-59.75, 57.5-57.15, 50-50.45, 48.25-47.9.



Crude is now at important retracement level 61.8% (around 64.5). If crude resisted by 77.80/78 I expect the following downside targets 63.3-63.11, 58.7-58.44, 57.6-57.34, 54.10-53.88, 50.9-50.48, 47.6-47.32.

News that supported up move and down move of Crude:

Bearish News

Bullish News


U.S. oil futures turn lower ahead of API supply report

By - Jul 22, 2014

Crude dips on U.S. supply uncertainty

By - Jul 22, 2014

NYMEX crude oil prices dip in Asia after API data shows mild stocks drop

By - Jul 22, 2014

U.S. oil futures decline ahead of weekly supply data

By - Jul 23, 2014


Crude oil futures decline despite upbeat China PMI data

By - Jul 24, 2014

WTI oil futures modestly lower after mixed U.S. data

By - Jul 24, 2014


Crude oil edges lower, U.S. home sales still weigh

By - Jul 25, 2014

Crude futures edge lower in choppy trading, U.S. data support

By - Jul 25, 2014


U.S. oil hits session low after disappointing U.S. confidence data

By - Sep 30, 2014

Crude hammered lower as quarter ends amid major supply concerns

By - Sep 30, 2014

Oil Prices Tumble On High Dollar

By International Business Times - Sep 30, 2014

NYMEX crude falls in early Asia despite API data mild drop in supplies

By - Sep 30, 2014


Crude oil futures slump with all eyes on OPEC meeting

By - Nov 24, 2014

NYMEX crude edges lower in Asia with OPEC meeting in focus

By - Nov 24, 2014


Oil futures extend plunge to lowest since 2009 on OPEC inaction

By - Dec 01, 2014


Oil futures tumble to session lows on Saudi price cut

By - Dec 04, 2014

Crude drops as Saudi Arabia trims export prices

By - Dec 04, 2014


NYMEX crude falls in Asia, weekend OPEC comments brushed off

By - Dec 14, 2014


Oil hits five-year low before rallying above $62

By Reuters - Dec 15, 2014


Oil declines in thin, volatile trading

By Reuters - Jan 02, 2015


Oil trades near 6-year low amid global growth concerns

By - Jan 14, 2015


Oil rises, but set for record run of monthly falls

By Reuters - Jan 30, 2015

Crude oil rallies over 1% but supply glut worries still weigh

By - Jan 30, 2015


Crude oil futures drop 3% as global growth concerns weigh

By - Feb 02, 2015

Crude oil turns lower in choppy trade after ISM disappoints

By - Feb 02, 2015


Crude oil futures erase gains to trade down 3% in choppy trade

By - Feb 17, 2015


Oil futures decline amid profit-taking ahead of U.S. supply report

By - Feb 18, 2015

Cheaper crude oil subdues U.S. producer inflation; housing starts fall

By Reuters - Feb 18, 2015

Oil's losses deepen; WTI drops as much as 3% ahead of API data

By - Feb 18, 2015


Brent oil futures fall below $58 as dollar hits 11-year high

By - Mar 10, 2015

Dollar rally sinks oil; Brent down more than U.S. crude

By Reuters - Mar 10, 2015

Crude oil prices fall sharply, as U.S. Dollar reaches 12-year high

By - Mar 10, 2015


NYMEX crude falls in early Asia with focus on heavy supplies

By - Apr 23, 2015


Oil futures slip lower on rising U.S. stockpiles

By - Apr 23, 2015


Crude oil rebounds after upbeat China GDP data, U.S. supply data ahead

By - Jul 16, 2014

WTI oil futures extend gains after bullish U.S. supply report

By - Jul 16, 2014

Crude shoots up as U.S. stockpiles take a dive

By - Jul 16, 2014

NYMEX crude oil carries prices gains into Asia after bullish stocks data

By - Jul 16, 2014


Crude oil futures edge higher on upbeat Chinese data

By - Sep 23, 2014


NYMEX crude oil gains in early Asia on rebound off ample U.S. supplies

By - Oct 16, 2014


Crude oil rallies over 1% but supply data still weighs

By - Oct 17, 2014


Oil futures erase losses to trade up 2% on weaker dollar

By - Dec 01, 2014


Oil surges in about-face as some bet sub-$60 Brent won't last

By Reuters - Dec 17, 2014


Oil surges 5 percent on options expiry; bounce seen fleeting

By Reuters - Jan 14, 2015


Oil up in skittish trade; stocks, refinery strike limit gains

By Reuters - Feb 02, 2015


Oil jumps as dollar plunges, up nearly 20 percent in four days

By Reuters - Feb 03, 2015


Oil futures extend gains on bullish momentum

By - Feb 17, 2015


NYMEX crude gains in Asia as API data shows drop in distillate, gasoline

By - Mar 24, 2015


NYMEX crude up in Asia after China Q1 data flurry, GDP supports

By - Apr 15, 2015

WTI oil futures rally above $54 ahead of weekly inventory data

By - Apr 15, 2015

WTI oil futures rally to 4-month high after bullish supply data

By - Apr 15, 2015


NYMEX crude gains in early Asia as investors watch Yemen fighting

By - Apr 22, 2015

Present View 25-Apr-2015

As per my analysis, we are in wave 4 and I expect to see minimum of 58.63. Crude almost done this target made high of 58.39 on Thursday (23-Apr-2015). Still I expect to see another up move before a big fall, which will be wave 5 as per my analysis minimum targeting 45/43/38$.

For detailed analysis and updates you can check,

Conclusion - Fundamental or Technical?

In Market research, both are essential, and must go together to achieve the target. Technical analyst can give bigger targets but, these targets can only be reached if fundamental news supports. Else, technical analysis will fail.

Fundamental news, can give good move, but where the move will end? Only technical analysis can give the targets, where one can safely book the profits.

Technical Analysis gives targets, but

Fundamental News drives the market to reach the target.

Sometimes, Technical wins over fundamental and fundamental wins over technical.

Disclosure: The author has no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.