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NYMEX Crude Down Move - Fundamental Or Technical - A Research

I would like to share my view on Crude down fall from 107.67$ to 42.42$.

Often there is a debate on why a Commodity /Stock/Currency moves up or moves down. It moves based on Fundamental News or it is technically weak/strong.

Fundamental Supporters, will say it is because of fundamental news. Technical Supporters, will say it is because of technical.

In my perspective both are important, technical analysis works best based on fundamental news. I am supporter of technical analysis and which is fueled by fundamental news.

I started my analysis based on Elliott Wave from late 2013. I was highly bullish and expected up move and started projecting my targets for crude on the upside.

29-June-2014

Positional Up move if 105 holds support:
If crude supported by 105, upside targets are: 107.5-107.3, 108-108.3, 108.5-108.7, 109-109.3, 109.5-109.7, 110.3-110.6, 112-112.3, 112.5-112.7, 113.7-113.9.

http://freecommodityanalysis.blogspot.in/2014/06/nymex-crude-view-29-june-2014.html

My Positional View changed once, crude broken it's base support of 97$, and I became bearish.

Here below, I have given my charts and views which was given in my blog, chronologically.

01-Aug-2014

CMP 97.83

As Crude broken all its supports (99.7, 98.5, 97Now I am fully bearish with Crude.

Based on My chart, I expect 96.2, 92, 88, 85, 81 Long Term Positional.

http://freecommodityanalysis.blogspot.in/2014/08/nymex-crude-positional-down-move-view.html

15-Sep-2014

If crude restricted by 93.7, 96, I expect more fall in Crude.
Sell on rise is the strategy with SL 93.75 for targets: [[90.5-90.4-90.3]], 89.75, 88.5, [[87.5]], 86.8.

http://freecommodityanalysis.blogspot.in/2014/09/nymex-crude-positional-view-15-sep-2014.html

01-Nov-2014

CMP 80.71
Based on my Monthly/Weekly chart, If crude resisted by 114.82, 112.21, I expect minimum 75, 72.5.
Other targets: 75.25-74.95, 72.75-72.35, 66-65.65, 63.3-63.05, 60-59.75, 57.5-57.15, 50-50.45, 48.25-47.9.

HIGH LEVEL

http://freecommodityanalysis.blogspot.in/2014/11/nymex-crude-positional-analysis-01-nov.html

01-Dec-2014

Crude is now at important retracement level 61.8% (around 64.5). If crude resisted by 77.80/78 I expect the following downside targets 63.3-63.11, 58.7-58.44, 57.6-57.34, 54.10-53.88, 50.9-50.48, 47.6-47.32.

http://freecommodityanalysis.blogspot.in/2014/12/nymex-crude-view-01-dec-2014.html

News that supported up move and down move of Crude:

Bearish News

Bullish News

22.06.2014

U.S. oil futures turn lower ahead of API supply report

By Investing.com - Jul 22, 2014

Crude dips on U.S. supply uncertainty

By Investing.com - Jul 22, 2014

NYMEX crude oil prices dip in Asia after API data shows mild stocks drop

By Investing.com - Jul 22, 2014

U.S. oil futures decline ahead of weekly supply data

By Investing.com - Jul 23, 2014

24.07.2014

Crude oil futures decline despite upbeat China PMI data

By Investing.com - Jul 24, 2014

WTI oil futures modestly lower after mixed U.S. data

By Investing.com - Jul 24, 2014

25.07.2014

Crude oil edges lower, U.S. home sales still weigh

By Investing.com - Jul 25, 2014

Crude futures edge lower in choppy trading, U.S. data support

By Investing.com - Jul 25, 2014

30.09.2014

U.S. oil hits session low after disappointing U.S. confidence data

By Investing.com - Sep 30, 2014

Crude hammered lower as quarter ends amid major supply concerns

By Investing.com - Sep 30, 2014

Oil Prices Tumble On High Dollar

By International Business Times - Sep 30, 2014

NYMEX crude falls in early Asia despite API data mild drop in supplies

By Investing.com - Sep 30, 2014

24.11.2014

Crude oil futures slump with all eyes on OPEC meeting

By Investing.com - Nov 24, 2014

NYMEX crude edges lower in Asia with OPEC meeting in focus

By Investing.com - Nov 24, 2014

01.12-2014

Oil futures extend plunge to lowest since 2009 on OPEC inaction

By Investing.com - Dec 01, 2014

04.12.2014

Oil futures tumble to session lows on Saudi price cut

By Investing.com - Dec 04, 2014

Crude drops as Saudi Arabia trims export prices

By Investing.com - Dec 04, 2014

14.12.2015

NYMEX crude falls in Asia, weekend OPEC comments brushed off

By Investing.com - Dec 14, 2014

15.12.2015

Oil hits five-year low before rallying above $62

By Reuters - Dec 15, 2014

02.01.2015

Oil declines in thin, volatile trading

By Reuters - Jan 02, 2015

14.01.2015

Oil trades near 6-year low amid global growth concerns

By Investing.com - Jan 14, 2015

30.01.2015

Oil rises, but set for record run of monthly falls

By Reuters - Jan 30, 2015

Crude oil rallies over 1% but supply glut worries still weigh

By Investing.com - Jan 30, 2015

02.02.2015

Crude oil futures drop 3% as global growth concerns weigh

By Investing.com - Feb 02, 2015

Crude oil turns lower in choppy trade after ISM disappoints

By Investing.com - Feb 02, 2015

17.02.2015

Crude oil futures erase gains to trade down 3% in choppy trade

By Investing.com - Feb 17, 2015

18.02.2015

Oil futures decline amid profit-taking ahead of U.S. supply report

By Investing.com - Feb 18, 2015

Cheaper crude oil subdues U.S. producer inflation; housing starts fall

By Reuters - Feb 18, 2015

Oil's losses deepen; WTI drops as much as 3% ahead of API data

By Investing.com - Feb 18, 2015

10.03.2015

Brent oil futures fall below $58 as dollar hits 11-year high

By Investing.com - Mar 10, 2015

Dollar rally sinks oil; Brent down more than U.S. crude

By Reuters - Mar 10, 2015

Crude oil prices fall sharply, as U.S. Dollar reaches 12-year high

By Investing.com - Mar 10, 2015

23.02.2015

NYMEX crude falls in early Asia with focus on heavy supplies

By Investing.com - Apr 23, 2015

23.02.2015

Oil futures slip lower on rising U.S. stockpiles

By Investing.com - Apr 23, 2015

16.07.2014

Crude oil rebounds after upbeat China GDP data, U.S. supply data ahead

By Investing.com - Jul 16, 2014

WTI oil futures extend gains after bullish U.S. supply report

By Investing.com - Jul 16, 2014

Crude shoots up as U.S. stockpiles take a dive

By Investing.com - Jul 16, 2014

NYMEX crude oil carries prices gains into Asia after bullish stocks data

By Investing.com - Jul 16, 2014

23.09.2014

Crude oil futures edge higher on upbeat Chinese data

By Investing.com - Sep 23, 2014

16.10.2014

NYMEX crude oil gains in early Asia on rebound off ample U.S. supplies

By Investing.com - Oct 16, 2014

17.10.2014

Crude oil rallies over 1% but supply data still weighs

By Investing.com - Oct 17, 2014

01.12.2014

Oil futures erase losses to trade up 2% on weaker dollar

By Investing.com - Dec 01, 2014

17.12.2014

Oil surges in about-face as some bet sub-$60 Brent won't last

By Reuters - Dec 17, 2014

14.01.2015

Oil surges 5 percent on options expiry; bounce seen fleeting

By Reuters - Jan 14, 2015

02.02.2014

Oil up in skittish trade; stocks, refinery strike limit gains

By Reuters - Feb 02, 2015

03.02.2015

Oil jumps as dollar plunges, up nearly 20 percent in four days

By Reuters - Feb 03, 2015

17.02.2015

Oil futures extend gains on bullish momentum

By Investing.com - Feb 17, 2015

25.03.2015

NYMEX crude gains in Asia as API data shows drop in distillate, gasoline

By Investing.com - Mar 24, 2015

15.04.2015

NYMEX crude up in Asia after China Q1 data flurry, GDP supports

By Investing.com - Apr 15, 2015

WTI oil futures rally above $54 ahead of weekly inventory data

By Investing.com - Apr 15, 2015

WTI oil futures rally to 4-month high after bullish supply data

By Investing.com - Apr 15, 2015

22.04.2015

NYMEX crude gains in early Asia as investors watch Yemen fighting

By Investing.com - Apr 22, 2015


Present View 25-Apr-2015

As per my analysis, we are in wave 4 and I expect to see minimum of 58.63. Crude almost done this target made high of 58.39 on Thursday (23-Apr-2015). Still I expect to see another up move before a big fall, which will be wave 5 as per my analysis minimum targeting 45/43/38$.

For detailed analysis and updates you can check freecommodityanalysis.blogspot.in, marketreserachanalysis.blogspot.in

Conclusion - Fundamental or Technical?

In Market research, both are essential, and must go together to achieve the target. Technical analyst can give bigger targets but, these targets can only be reached if fundamental news supports. Else, technical analysis will fail.

Fundamental news, can give good move, but where the move will end? Only technical analysis can give the targets, where one can safely book the profits.

Technical Analysis gives targets, but

Fundamental News drives the market to reach the target.

Sometimes, Technical wins over fundamental and fundamental wins over technical.

Disclosure: The author has no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.