According to Energy Metro Desk,
Bluegold Research has been ranked 5th best natural gas storage forecaster in 2018! So far this year (as of Feb. 21), Bluegold Research ranks 4th!
* - number of reports;
** - simple difference in bcf, % share of observations;
*** - trading bias is calculated by subtracting BGR forecast from the consensus forecast (i.e., from market expectations as indicated in the Reuters survey); when BGR projection is below consensus, there is a bullish bias; when BGR projection is above consensus, there is a bearish bias; when there is a bullish bias and EIA then reports a figure that is below consensus, it is assumed that the trading bias was predicted correctly. Same logic applies for situations when there is a bearish bias before the report and EIA releases a storage number that is above consensus. EIA revisions are excluded from trading bias calculations. As you can see, historically, we have correctly predicted the trading bias for 63% of reports released since December 2015. When we do get the bias right, it tends to a bearish bias (52%). If we exclude 2016 results and look at a more recent history, we will see that bearish bias had a higher rate of correct predictions (63% of cases).
Source: Bluegold Research
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Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.