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Technical analysis of EOG for July 2010

|Includes: EOG Resources, Inc. (EOG)

Ok, as a follow-up to my previous post regarding Natural Gas plays for July 2010 (where I decided that EOG looked the best technically of the group I researched), here is some fibonacci analysis that I did for EOG after the market close today:

EOG-2010-07-01

Today's low of $95.78 was a nail-biter....bouncing nicely off the SMA(200,1d)=$95.93, but dancing precariously around the fibonacci "D" point of $95.58 from 19 Oct 2009.  (Its also disconcerting that this "D" point was pierced twice back in May, so maybe a closer look on a daily chart is in order?)

On the positive side, its somewhat reassuring to have both a $96 swing point and $96 200-day moving average as support levels....in addition to lower channel support at the same $96 for this week. 

So $96 makes for a really good stop threshold, but was is the potential upside?  My fibonacci projection shows it going to ~$128 if it remains in a A-B-C up pattern (or, F-G-H on my annotated chart).  $115 is a key resistance level.  

How quickly might it reach $128?  Thats the problem with this A-B-C fibonacci pattern analysis....it could happen virtually overnight, or it could happen years from now and be a valid pattern.  Since thats no help, lets look its past price movement performance in its current channel: its taken as little as two months for it to do a full channel traversal, and approx. six months to complete its A-B legs and/or C->D legs.   So 2-6 months seems reasonable. 

Disclosure: No Positions