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Trouble in Canadian Wireless?

|Includes: BCE, RCI, SJR, TELUS Corporation (TU)

Telus (NYSE:TU) reported disappointing subscriber metrics for 1Q this morning.  Net adds of 48,000 fell short of estimates of 75,000 to 100,000.  Even worse, ARPU declines accelerated falling to $58.39, down 5.6% vs. a year ago.  Nott surprisingly, the shares are taking a hard hit, down more than 10%.  The news is dragging all Canadian telecom lower including BCE and Rogers Communications (NYSE:RCI).  The big risk ahead is for RCI's 1Q.  RCI gets over half of revenue and EBITDA from wireless.  RCI is particularly strong in smartphones whereas TU has a low end bias so it is possible that RCI holds up if Canada ends up looking like the U.S. where smartphones remain healthy.  RCI still has a premium multiple despite the shares finally succumbing.  I'd be careful on the long side ahead of earnings.