Embers Spreadsheets

Feb. 04, 2016 2:33 PM ET2 Comments
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Bonds, Long-Term Horizon, Portfolio Strategy, Contrarian

Contributor Since 2015

I have a J.D. degree from Yale Law School, practiced for 30 years as a trial lawyer in commercial cases, and in the decade that followed managed a $1B+ portfolio for a family office. I have recently retired and am free to write about whatever I want. And so I will.

The fellow in my icon is Galileo Galilei, who famously said: Eppur si muove.

I say, less famously: Time is the only reliable solvent of folly.

This instablog post is a companion piece to TSLA: Tesla's Gigafactory: What Did the Joker Say To The Thief?, and has images of the spreadsheets prepared by Embers.

Note: embers has made revisions to the spreadsheets; they do not change any conclusions. I will do my best to get the revised spreadsheets up soon. In the meantime, I continue to invite anyone interested to email me (and I can send pdfs of the revised spreadsheets or put them in touch directly with embers).

Tesla Summary Results (page 1):

Tesla Summary Results (page 2):

Tesla Summary Results (page 3):

Tesla Performance & Materials (page 1):

Tesla Performance & Materials (page 2):

Tesla Performance & Materials (page 3):

Tesla Performance & Materials (page 4):

Tesla Performance & Materials (page 5):

Tesla Cell Chemistry (page 1):

Tesla Cell Chemistry (page 2):

Tesla Manufacturing Cost Calculations (page 1):

Tesla Manufacturing Cost Calculations (page 2):

Tesla Manufacturing Cost Calculations (page 3):

Tesla Manufacturing Cost Calculations (page 4):

Tesla Manufacturing Cost Calculations (page 5):

Tesla Manufacturing Cost Calculations (page 6):

Tesla Manufacturing Cost Calculations (page 7):

Tesla Cost Input (page 1):

Tesla Cost Input (page 2):

Tesla Gigafactory Size & Cost

Supporting Documents

  1. 20160202_BatPaC_Version_3_Battery.pdf
  2. 20160202_BatPaC_Version_3_Module.pdf
  3. 20160202_BatPaC_Version_3_Cost_Breakdown.pdf
  4. 20160202_BatPaC_Version_3_Cost_Input.pdf

Disclosure: I am/we are short TSLA VIA LONG-DATED PUTS.

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