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Oil Examinations


Bounce in oil

Strategic Reserve Release

Offline Vehichles


     Oil recently bounced volume spike and price. What does it mean to the US market when Oil production is not affected and Vehicles that demand distillates are damaged and or totaled? When looking at it from an outside perspective you see a draw before hurricane from reserves which is less total demand. You see 1mil+ people left not driving and 12+million without power, some unable to return to their homes for weeks stuck in shelters. There is no figure hypothetical, 1 million vehicles offline for 1 week at a total of 150 conservatively miles driven a week in a 25 mpg car that is roughly 6 gallons. Lets look at 6 x 1 million 6 million gallons offline for a week multiply that by 10 to take into account 80% population putting us at 60 million gallons offline.. Now add Logistics to the the equation lets says were taking 10000 semis offline for a week at and construction stops for a month in order to evaluate damage and remediation most vehicles run on gas and diesel your talking about another 19000 vehicles/ equipment offline. Look at the mpg of 10 mpg x28000x7=2mil. So we are looking at close to 8 million offline at the low end in demand. A high end offline effect of 100 million for the month in re-balancing.

I am short Crude features long term. 

Disclosure: I am/we are long WTID.

Additional disclosure: I am an amateur trader and Data is hypothetical taken from Seattle DOT area in comparison to Houston and Florida for quick comparison.