Tremendous fall for the last 4 days, and now the most surprising fact is that USD/JPY is aiming to a new low. Pending orders at 112 levels were picked but we would not want the order to continue any further as USD/JPY is given another clue to the down side.
One of the key factors is the monthly chart which shows a long bearish candle, and we need to remember that history tends to repeat itself. A monthly bearish candle is likely to be followed by another 1 or 2 bearish candles and may lead to further declines. The weekly chart also supports this view.
With this in mind we will conclude that the next level of target for the USD/JPY is at 105 and 102. In case of a bounce from the current level (112) then the rise will be limited by 117 area.
The bullish resume on the Kiwi Dollar has brought back some level of confidence among the investors. The pair failed to break the resistance at 0.6678 and left a 125 pip spike towards to the upside. This triggered a lot of stops leaving the bulls off road. But this week the bulls have resumed strength, but there are no sings of a break yet. We might gain more strength once the resistance at 0.6678 is broken on the weekly chart.
We will continue to place long orders at the lowest levels possible, especially when the USD is down across the board.
Though being back fired on Gold yet, we made no losses. We had liquidated our long orders after a daily doji seen on the 11th February which appeared on the upper descending channel. Though the candle appeared to be a valid signal, yet the price broke above the resistance on the back of safe haven investments. We believe that none of our article subscribers went short on Gold as we have been stressing on a entry towards the 1200's.
Now that we are into the 1200's we will only concentrate on placing long pending orders and our next target is to enter the 1300's especially when the dollar is weak across the board. We see a lot of potential in Gold moving forward. Our first entry in this zone is at 1126.30 followed by 1198/91, below this will trigger our stop, we aim at trialing these trades into the 1300's and continue placing orders throughout its path.
US CORE RETAIL SALES AT 7:00 PM IST
This release is considered to be a good price mover as the sentiment is built around to give some strength to the March rate hike. Today's release can either add strength or weaken this sentiment.
The forecast is set at 0.0% verses the previous figure -0.1%. We will be looking for a deviation of about 0.5% to get in on a trade.
The plan is to see a deviation of 0.5% or more to buy the dollar. If we get a lower release such as -0.5 or worst, then we should immediately sell the USD against its stronger rivals. If we get a conflicting release then it is worth to wait for 5 minutes and go with the direction that is set after 5 minutes.
Suggested pairs are EUR/USD and USD/JPY
For more daily Forex signals, visit NoaFX Knowledge Library.