USD/JPY At A Key Level

May 17, 2016 8:10 AM ET
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It's the third week in a row that USD is gaining after a single week decline on the 24th of April. If we measure the reversal with a Fib on the 24th candle then the retracement is 61.8% of the decline. However, the longer term fib points to a trace towards 114.50 where the 61.8 and the 38.2% fib meets along with the philological level. The immediate target is at 110.55, but the day's candle has to close above 109.35 which was a point of failure for the last 3 times.

The 4 hour chart is positive towards the upside with a target point near 110.71.


The price is trading within the channel on the daily chart, but is limited by the 23.6% fib and the ascending trendline, yesterday's candle was bounced off this level and the immediate point of recovery is 0.6886, if the price is able to overcome this level, then we will see the pair trading back towards the recent highs. A break below the 23.6 and the trend line will push the price towards the lower half of the channel near the lower trend line.

Momentum indicators are mixed while the 100 and the 200 DMA are neutral, RSI supports a bounce by rising above with a similar pattern (Ascending Trend line)


Following the daily decline the price was able to recover for two straight days and is trading above the support level. The bulls have a upper hand as long as the price is above 1.4394.

On the 4 hour chart, the price is limited by the 100 DMA and the last candle was a bounce off from this level. A break above the 100 DMA will move the pair towards 23.6 (1.45470) and a move above this level will push the pair back to 1.47046.

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