Please Note: Blog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors.

SAB MILLER / ABI: AND SO IT STARTED

|Includes: BUD, SBMRF, SABMiller plc ADR (SBMRY)

Anheuser-Busch InBev has already briefed advisers about sale of Italian and Dutch SAB Miller brands, London-based Sunday Times reports.

Sales to appease competition regulators in Brussels before takeover of SAB Miller, Times says

Discussions of sale are in early stages; AB InBev, SAB Miller decline to comment, Times reports

My view:

Still at a very early stage in the process and this come as a surprise. Looking at the slides from the announcement and peroni appeared quite central to the strategy of the merged entity in Europe. This is clearly not a positive news and this should switch investor focus toward the execution risk for this transaction. As I have been arguing since the deal announcement the spread is way too tight given the execution risk and the spread should be trading in 15/17% discount range to reflect the multiple regulatory risk. I would expect a sharp drop tomorrow on the open and a trading range of 3700/3800 going forward reflecting the multiple risk to the transaction.

Looking at the table below of all the deals with a value greater than 20bn, clearly shows that the tighter than average spread of SAB Miller was unwarranted considering the risk and the future ongoing negative newsflow the situation will face for the coming months.

An initial drop to 15% would be my scenario, but I could see the spread moving toward the 20/25% level, a level where other challenged deals are trading at. Ultimately the risks faced by SAB Miller are not less than those of BHI / HAL, or the Healthcare Systems deals in the US. Sell SAB MILLER ahead of a negative newsflows in the coming Months.

Nicolas Marmurek

MEGADEALS > USD 20bn   SECTOR Deal value Spread Spread Net Spread
TARGET BIDDER Target USD m % % Annualized
ALLERGAN PLC PFIZER INC Health Care 150,000 15.88% 15.84% 14.53%
BAKER HUGHES INC HALLIBURTON CO Energy 37,531 19.03% 18.86% 64.34%
BG GROUP PLC ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC-A SHS Energy 79,308 8.82% 8.71% 23.03%
BG GROUP PLC ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC-B SHS Energy   9.55% 9.45% 24.98%
BROADCOM CORP-CL A AVAGO TECHNOLOGIES LTD Information Technology 29,806 2.46% 2.49% 7.39%
BROADCOM CORP-CL A AVAGO TECHNOLOGIES LTD Information Technology   1.64% 1.67% 4.95%
BAXALTA INC SHIRE PLC-ADR Health Care 30,000 -0.44% -0.35% -0.59%
CHUBB CORP ACE LTD Financials 28,300 1.21% 1.15% 5.38%
CIGNA CORP ANTHEM INC Health Care 48,400 26.39% 26.14% 29.73%
EMC CORP/MA VMWARE INC-CLASS A Information Technology 67,000 21.10% 22.19% 33.05%
HUMANA INC AETNA INC Health Care 28,906 25.61% 25.67% 30.62%
PRECISION CASTPARTS CORP BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC-CL B Industrials 32,300 1.46% 1.42% 15.76%
SABMILLER PLC ANHEUSER-BUSCH INBEV SA/NV Consumer Staples 120,500 9.24% 11.15% 10.23%
TIME WARNER CABLE CHARTER COMMUNICATION-A Consumer Discretionary 79,250 8.65% 8.62% 34.57%
WILLIAMS COS INC ENERGY TRANSFER EQUITY LP Energy 48,000 1.04% 4.50% 9.78%
    Average 59,946 10.11% 10.50% 20.52%
    Total 779,302