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MacroMarkets June 2010 Home Price Expecations Survey - Far Too Optimistic

On Wednesday (June 23) MacroMarkets released its June Home Price Expectations Survey results.

Here is the Press Release (pdf); the accompanying chart is seen below:

As one can see from the above chart, the expectation is that not only has the residential real estate market hit a "bottom" as far as pricing; but that steady yet mild appreciation will occur through 2014.

The survey detail is interesting.  The most "bearish" of the forecasters is seen as Gary Shilling, with a forecast of 18.78% cumulative price decline through 2014.  A couple of other forecasters are close to this forecast, including John Brynjolfsson, with a forecast of a 18.08% cumulative price decline through 2014; and Mark Hanson with -17.37%.  Of note, all three of these most "bearish" forecasters see the preponderance of losses "front-loaded" (i.e. occurring over the nearest years, 2010-2012).

For a variety of reasons, I believe that even these "most bearish" of forecasts will prove too optimistic in hindsight.  Although an 18% decline is substantial, from a longer-term historical perspective such a decline is rather tame in light of the wild excesses that have occurred over the years.

I have written extensively about the residential real estate situation.  For a variety of reasons, it is exceedingly complex.  While many people have an optimistic view at this time regarding future residential real estate pricing trends, in my opinion such a view is unsupported on an "all things considered" basis.  Furthermore, there exists outsized potential for a price decline of severe magnitude, unfortunately.

SPX at 1073.69 as this post is written

disclosure - no securities mentioned



Disclosure: disclosure - no positions mentioned