While I continue to be proven correct over and over on my Sirius XM related calls, the bashing of me on Sirius XM stock message boards is reaching a fevered pitch, as posters look through thousands of my articles to find the five or six things that I've gotten wrong in the last 7 years, hoping to prove me to be some kind of fraud.
Many of these posters, which have multiple yahoo and seeking alpha aliases, are members of other Satellite Radio sites, that are quickly seeing their memberships dwindle and their google ad click revenues plummet, as a mass exodus to SatwavesPro is underway. They refer to themselves as "free" yet provide investors value that is priced appropriately.
Not everything I write about can happen immediately, and I readily admit that some things I speculate about may never happen. My intentions however are always to educate and inform...NOT entertain nor mislead. There are plenty of clowns out there already providing the entertainment, and misdirection can be found on every hedge fund controlled free message board.
Sometimes my predictions can happen immediately, such as my recent calls on Sirius XM's stock performance. On Thursday, I wrote that October auto sales may prove to be the best of the year, due to the performance of the stock market in September. Both Edmunds.com and JD Power.com issued statements that indicate I was correct on both counts. Some other things, take a bit longer to come to fruition..
Take the Certified Preowned Auto Market for example. Ever since it was first announced that Sirius XM had signed its first Preowned Partner Program, I have been bullish on the idea and have written articles for at least the last two years on the benefits of such programs, to Sirius XM and more importantly its stockholders.
Earlier this year, I suggested that even if new auto sales remained flat, that the growing Certified Preowned Program model would positively impact Sirius XM's subscriber growth. Edmunds.com is now out with a report that Certified Preowned sales are up nearly 5% year over year:
Edmunds.com estimates that 18.5 percent of used cars bought at dealerships are certified pre-owned vehicles, compared to 13.8 percent this time last year.
While this number in and of itself may seem quite trivial to some, this is where my experience can be helpful. Back in March, I published the actual Certified and Preowned sales numbers, along with private sales numbers of used cars. Combined, the auto market represents four times more potential for Sirius XM, than most analysts currently forecast.
Last year about 11 million new vehicles were sold. This year that number will increase to about 12 million. Last year however, 35 million used cars were sold including nearly 13 million through auto dealers. The Edmunds data suggests that 13.5 million certified preowned vehicles will be sold this year.
As more and more used cars are put into operation with factory installed satellite radios, Sirius XM's opportunities for accelerated growth will also increase. and the company is clearly now capitalizing on this market. While analysts may look skeptically at valuations, the metrics they value so highly do not include this forgotten opportunity. That means opportunity for investors. By the time the analysts get on board with this, it will be too late for their clients. Lucky for you....you have me!
Disclosure: Long SIRI