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$GLD update 12 trading days after the F-Shift Foreaster forecast

12 days ago on September 17,2009 the F-Shift Forecaster generated a probable outcome which called for the above mentioned ETF tracking stock, $GLD to close higher than the start value of $99.34 (September 17,2009 closing price). Today was judgement day and the Forecaster proved to be correct. $GLD closed today at $99.82. The forecaster produced a weighted forecast calling for a higher value with an approximate 68% probability. This value states that $GLD had a high probability of closing higher in 12 trading periods (in this case days) than the start value of $99.34. I say "approximately" because each time you tap the F9 key on your keyboard, you engage the RANDbetween function that shuffles the order of the historic results. Remember, it does not alter the returns, only the order of the returns and the probability of those historical returns repeating themselves in the future, therefore the results will vary slightly with each "tap". The non- weighted forecast was also decisively positive calling for an almost 71% probability of a higher closing value.

$GLD 12 day forecast result
$GLD 12 day forecast result
A final note - the calculation used in the column entitled" % Change C2C" on the "Forecaster" (which stood for close to close) tab has been modified to a proprietary calculation which now includes the closing price relative to its range. By  introducing this dynamic into the formula one can get a clearer picture of not only the price percent change form close to close as I originally had, but now the final result adds momentum into the equation by defining where an underlying instrument closes from one day to the next relative to the range, from one day to the next. Below is the new forecast for $GLD 12 trading days from today

 
12 day forecast on $GLD
12 day forecast on $GLD

 

Below I have also included the WEEKLY forecast for $GLD . Take a look at the highlighted probabilities in the forecast seen in the orange box. Try to align the daily and weekly forecast and I will return tomorrow with the F- Shift Forecasters "Hybrid" analysis which combines the results from both to produce a robust larger time framed outlook with perhaps an optimal entry using the daily results.
Weekly $GLD forecast
Weekly $GLD forecast
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