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Forecasts for the Weeks of December 14 and 21

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.  
  Forecast Prior Observation Consensus
Week of December 14      
December 15      
Producer Price Index - November 1.0% 0.3 1.0
Core PPI 0.2 -0.6 0.2
Energy 5.0 1.6  
       
Industrial Production - November 0.5% 0.1 0.6
Capacity Utilization 71.1 70.7 71.2
       
NAHB Housing Market Index - December 18 17 18
       
December 16      
Consumer Price Index - November 0.4% 0.3 0.4
Core CPI 0.1 0.2 0.1
Energy   1.5  
       
Housing Starts - November 564K 529 575
Building Permits 568 552  
Current Account - 2nd Quarter -$108.0B -98.8 -108
FMOC 0.125 0.1  
       
December 17      
Initial Unemployment Claims 460K 474 465
Leading Economic Inidicators - November 0.6% 0.3 0.6
       
Week of December 21      
December 22      
GDP - Q3 (r) 2.8% 2.8 2.8
GDP Implicit Price Deflator 0.5 0.5 0.5
PCE 2.9 2.9  
PCE Deflator 2.7 2.7 2.7
PCE Core Deflator 1.3 1.3 1.3
       
Existing Home Sales - November 6.03M 6.10 6.30
       
December 23      
Personal Income - November 0.3% 0.2 0.4
Personal Spending 0.4 0.7 0.4
PCE Price Index 0.3 0.3  
Core PCE Price Index 0.1 0.2 0.1
Real Personal Spending 0.1 0.4  
       
New Home Sales - November 440K 430 440
Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Dec (r) 73.4 73.4  
       
December 24      
Durable Goods Orders - November 0.4% -0.6 0.3


Prior observation is the last official release figure. For data where the the figure to be released is a revision of a prior preliminary estimate, as is sometimes the case with GDP, productivity or Michigan consumer sentiment, the prior observation is the preliminary release figure; where no official preliminary figure has been released, the prior observation is the release figure for the previous period.

Peter Morici is a professor at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland School, and the former Chief Economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission.

Peter Morici

Robert H. Smith School of Business

University of Maryland

College Park, MD 20742-1815

703 549 4338

Cell 703 618 4338

 

http://www.smith.umd.edu/lbpp/faculty/morici.asp