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Something Innocuous

Bull/Bear markets do not annouce their arrival before they are seen with Bells and Whistles or fire alarms clanging. The beginnings are usually not discernable until after the fact, Innocuously.

Take the previous Bull which Peaked in Oct. of 2007. The peak was the Head of an H&S top but was not recognised as such until the total formation was revealed and the neckline penetrated and even then it was treated as an anomaly when the rose back to the breakdown point. There were too many things in the foreground going up that contributed to the lack of conviction that a Bear had really begun.

The Alarms did not ring when Gold rose to $1,000, nor did they ring when oil approached $150. First stocks failed to go up, then commodities dropped, but stocks still did not rebound. 

The alarms were ringing but were silent alarms, until September, October, November, etc. The Bull Market ended 12 months before but had gone unnoticed.

My contention is that ater 17 months in Bear Market mode and a drop of 55% or so, the beginnings of a Bull market are being felt. Just like in the Bull previously, there are all sorts of things going on in the Foreground which prove beyond a reasonable doubt that It can not be a New Bull market.

Even the Mexican Flu has been shrugged off so far.  So i'm in the Bull camp and expect the move to 9,000 to be a necessity. That would be my Neckline. A two week vicious plunge of 20% or so would provide the right shoulder. If 7300 holds, the right shoulder would be in.

When good news drives a market up but bad news does not drive it down, the climate is different and should be treated as such.

Caveat, if Mexico goes down the tubes, I do not have a clue what the overall market will do.

I am prepared for the Worst, althought I still expect the Best.