11 sell signals out of 23 years which resulted in a 10% or more decline within 4 months. The Dow on average declines 10% or more every year, the Quiet sideways move this decade was considered to be an anomaly.
This means that this "signal" has missed around 50% of all 10% or more declines.
After the Initial signal a decline always occurs within 4 months, I wonder how many signals were issued prior to the Normal, "Sell in May and go away or the weakest months of the year, September and October"?
After the Initial signal is given, there is a chance that the Markets will rally sharply before they start to go Down.
So is the 10% or more Decline from the Top or from date of Issuance?
15 signals gave market declines of less than 10%, wow, Hit or Miss but more like a miss. How many signals were given this year alone?
Only around 42% of Signals given were at least 10%.
Wow, a less than 50/50 chance. Which means that you will miss the upturn that followed the other 15 while waiting to see if its one of the 10% or more signals.
Todays Volatility means you can just as easily get whipsawed as actually make a Buck.
A less than 50% chance that the Decline will be 10% on top of the all those missed 10% declines, every year.
Let me flip a coin, oooops. Only a 6% decline. What now? a 10% average decline is overdue.