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It's A New Day

Well, on review, did not get back to much north of 1210 or 11500.  Some morning skitter on consumer sentiment not exactly robust (lowest since 1981, which if you are old like me, was a really lousy year) and man oh man, did the rats scurry.

Yeah, trading hype for options expiration.  On the power elite front, the "Europe Debt Crisis" ball got kicked into early October.  Hmmmm.  Let's evaluate.

Two main forces running the global markets.  Power or ruling elite and the trading elite.  Don't think that every morning is a big surprise to everybody.

Right now, trading elite ran the past 7 or 8 sessions.  Time for power elite to step back in.  By that, we have the herd the sheep aspect.

Next week, no CONCRETE FOMC action.  No, just the "Twist" discussed a little more.  Some platitudes about political will on the fiscal stimulus front and the need to allow 'time' to let the 'parties work things out'.  yeah right.

So we get market meander.   Some selloff into the close, no spike save for today.  Monday, "anticipation" comes into play as in lack of commitment, minor profit taking and some market decay but nothing dramatic.  This continues until end of week when heebie jeebies pick up.

Fri 9/9, we get spike save to post an "up" day.  ditto for Mon 9/12, heckuva spike save, Tues treading water, then the goose for Wed, Thur and today, well today the goose has some momentum but not quite there and so that is why we get the dropoff into the weekend.

So we have 5 'up' days and then a little tail off.  This sets up well for motormouth dribble next week (oh, markets are awaiting "da word" from on high).  No super duper news, dribble down.  Then we have the week of 9/26 and this is where we should get primed for  another good setup for knockdown.  Cannot say if that week or first week of October, but it's coming.

Then earnings arrive and actually things are not as bad and markets jump up, level off enough ahead of Nov FOMC meet to again warrant the now familiar statement of "No children, not yet" but leaving the hints sufficient in quantity to pump for an upper 12xx year end close.

VIX drops to 28 end of next week but market doesn't get thrilled.  VIX then bumps back above 38 to 40 with one more good rug pull week of 9/26 or 10/3.  Then VIX goes back below 25 for Nov and stays in the 20's until next Jan/Feb 12 and once it goes south of 20 stays there until August.