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Steady As She Goes

The year end fund manager buying pressure is super intense.  I mean toss them a bone and they will chew it to pieces right now. 

Ok, the modest pulldown after the ridiculous October runup is intact.

Smack those errant puppies on the nose.

A well engineered and timed final 'blowoff' smackdown dead ahead of robust earnings so fundamentals could not be pushed aside, then up popped the Jack in the Box finishing the month at 1255.

Then on cue, bang, November 1.  Pulldown only got to 1210 and here we are on a low volume 'holiday' ten days later and the market has gone NOWHERE, still at 1255 or so.

How about those apples?

The Power Elite can not allow these markets to go through the roof right now.  They are giddy right now that their desires to derail Perry are on track (Bloomberg and CNBC sponsored 'debates') and a slew of 'candidates' (Cain, what a joke) and horrible media coverage.

No, the Power Elite still will not allow the election cycle of next year to be tampered with by economics.  No.  They are not the honchos for nothing.

So, we will get our year end runup rise.  I forecast the other day 1295 but am thinking that the election picture may alter this some.  The calendar tells me that the late Jan meeting is a good opportunity to goose.  However in view of Perrys' sustantial missteps and gaffes in the debates and undeniable fact that the media is gunning for him due to following their orders from the Power Elite, the goose could get delayed to the one day March meeting if the Power Elite develops the view that Perry has been derailed ahead of primary season.

This could mean we have a December runup just topping into the low 1300's,  which would exceed my 1295 forecast, maybe to 1310 with some intradays a little higher.  Then a January/ Feb rug pull, back down to 1200, which of course was last seen in 2009, so the same BS that the Elite used to destroy the market in Feb 09 could be played out again.

I think we may bust through then the week of December 5th.  It would follow on with perhaps a little softness in the Thanksgiving week, which plays into keeping a lid on things until a bit more Dec runup.  So we could still see some shaking of the old apple tree here in the next 8 to 10 trading sessions, then the perkup signal comes.

This would mean I need to buy back the majority of my Jan/Feb/Mar puts, except where I am better off to get put the stock because the premium I got paid was very high due to volatility.  I will leave the Apr/May/June's alone.  I am starting to see the time decay really pick up steam now on my Jan's.

For instance, I got paid $11 on APA Jan 100's.  Those I may be able to buy back for 3 or so by early-mid December, but if I let them go into Jan and the market tanks, I could get them put if they settle under 100.  Remember the Trading Elite have got this wired.  So I need to reevaluate my premise of a Jan 2012 monetary stimulus and instead extend to March.

This may couple better with winter, Europe, China, et al if the VIX stays in the 20's.

Remember, constantly examine and evaluate.  Strive to balance conviction, belief, feelings, and dogma.  Reading the tea leaves is the best way to profit in these markets but given its extreme degree of inexactness, it is vital to always assess and re-assess.