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Review - Pat the Puppy on the Head


Power Elite appropriately managed lowered expectations well on Thursday and the Trading Elite kept just enough push on for the slow grind up.

Primed.  Positioned. and Ready.

I closed another 45 options, 90% with gains and a few breakeven.  Have remaining about 95 puts near term to close this coming week.

The 'tested' low on was 1234 or about ten points higher than I felt the floor would be. The preceding week close was 1244 or about twenty points higher than I thought.

So 40 points to get to 1295 is certainly in the offing for this coming week.  At this point, virtually all talk that drives the intervention component will be eliminated for the remainder of the year and into the first week or so of January 2012.

1300 should prove to be a top off and I doubt that 1325 will be breached on a blowoff.  The year start was 1257. four-five percent would be an up finish. 
Although Oct 27-28 did see a pretty remarkable blowoff, I think enthusiasm somewhat more constrained and level.  If 1300 gets broken this coming week and held into Christmas, then some driftup can occur.

On the Dow, the big IBM kickup has got it back to 12,200.  year start was 11,580, so it is already up 5.5%.  While I see AXP nudging to 51, and IBM/CAT/CVX a little higher, I do not see all 30 components rocking right now.  Maybe another 250 points, but 12,500 would be high relative to the SnP500.

The burst up should come hard on Wed or Thurs of this week.  Monday a little bit more wait and see, then Tuesday some shift up, with gears a gunning either Wed or Thurs.

I will close all remaining sold puts and sell a few more calls.  I will sell all shares on the plus side and only initiate shorts at 1305-10. 

The Euro crap is now destined for a March 2012 'showdown', and thus mid- late February should definitely see dropoff.  How much?  To get the results the Power Elite wants, which is abdication of sovereignty on a major scale and tie-in to the US backing, I think it will take a huge smashdown.  SnP500 of 1000. Dow of 10,000.

Will close SPG once and for all.  Keep other shorts down to 5000-8000 shares max and sell calls way up top and buy the puts nearer the money on select stocks pushing all time highs (NYSE:IBM).