And A Re-look After Re-reading My Last 40 Posts

Feb. 01, 2012 11:23 PM ET
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Contributor Since 2009

lone wolf trader; self taught; approx 24,000 trades (lifetime); co-developed financial software (ARGUS);


moved to Latin America and been living "la vida loca" and dropped out of the financial world; came back to milk and honey with the novel corona virus pandemic in full bloom and decided to revisit;

Not bad.

Generally I am on the right track and only failing to give the Elite due and proper respect on their abilities to manage these markets.

I need to string out my selling into the rally tops and be a little more patience on my buy back ins.

My take on CCL was reasonably correct except for a little PPT shot in the arm today.

Also, my grim fears will not be borne out because the Euro-disaster push can wait until after the French April elections, which will see Sarkozy win and the US November elections, which will see Obama win. Since Merkel is essentially in power until Sep 2013, the Elite have plenty of time in early 2013 to wreak havoc in order to achieve their political aims.

Since all of the sovereign bonds are all bought by the Elite either directly or indirectly thru their bankster pawns, they can easily play lots of games on those.

A "correction" is generally considered about 5-10% and a "bear" market is pegged at 20% with the in-between kind of a no mans land ether.

The mainstream media (MSM), bought and paid for by the Elite, will readily commit to blathering about "well, this correction was certainly overdue after such a strong run in January". This is sufficient again to induce a market decline and a swift kick in the groin for a number of recent high fliers.

Then, the watchword will be out on "next Fed meeting".

5% off of 1330-5 would be 60-70 points and 10% at a 130-5. One hundred or so would probably do the trick without spooking anyone.

So now craft your high flier shorts, your top up shorts, your overmarket hot calls (remember idiot, you sold a 365 CMG when it was 340, so watch it!) The worst would be troughing at 1210 or so and right now I doubt that there is enough time to bring about that sharp a drop. for the chartists, Oct 3 was 1100, Nov 25 was 1160, Dec 19 was 1205 and Mar 1 COULD be 1245-50. This would keep the TA trend lines right where the Elite want them. It would only be a small dip into the RED on the year.

But shaking the tree would definitely drop some of those high flier apples, no pun intended.

So I revise to this with a small caveat of maybe seeing some quick overshoot.

You sold your DE in the low 80's, not the present high 80's. You sold your CAT in the mid 90's, not the mid 110's it picked at. You sold your AFL at 45 and not 48-49 and your X at 29, not 31. You bailed on your GS at 103 and not the 114 of today.

In summary, it's ok to buy back if you can either do it lower or you got a fairly good sense the goose will take it higher than your original bailing point. Say you buy back DE at 80-81 and hold to 92. That's fine. Same with CAT with a buyback at 95-96 and a sale in July at 115. In other words, bag the attitude and trade the reality. You no more control these markets than you do the weather. Live with them. And remember the umbrella.

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