The feathering began. Yes another word for taper. The TBTF banks as in too big too fail are the continued prop to the market and got their marching orders telegraphed to them on 15 Oct. Their trading desks essentially got the command to BUY!!!!!!! and the reward was delivered 10 trading days later by the cover of the BOJ and the Japanese pension fund combo announcement of many billions more to come in CB liquidity.
The TBTF are the backstop to using their mountainous reserves to do the US CB bidding without the overt nature of the fed continuing its liquidity. That is to say with 2.3 trillion in excess banking system reserves and over 85% of that concentrated in seven banks (half in JP Morgan Chase), they have the firepower to continue asset price support ad nauseum at the beck and call of the fed.
What can change? Reality. Polar vortex. Slowing global demand. Estimated EPS for 2014 was $116 (Goldman Sachs- Nov 2013). Guess what? Q1-24.87, Q2-27.14, Q3-25.32, my estimate for Q4-24.00 or $101 for the year. That just moved the P/E to over 19 annualized and the Shiller to probably 25. This is serious nosebleed and unless the power elite back down on the sanction bs, the blowback is going to ratchet up and be the spark that ignites the inferno.
The 2015 forecast of $142 is sheer power elite bs. Period. The financial engineering bs as practiced by say IBM is running out of leg room and now you have got the great AAPL borrowing the free ECB liquidity at 1.1% for 8 years (that's about half of the comparable US Treas bond yield) and turning around, skirting US tax payments and handing it back to shareholders as stock purchases to increase EPS all the while coming forth with an I-watch???? and let's not forget more financial mickey mouse like another me-too payments system.
I have steadfastly maintained that this past May felt exactly like May 2007 to me. I remember sitting in my Charleston house in late October of that year following my ritual last minute tax prep season and analyzing my retirement account info which had grown by a prodigious amount since it was capped in Dec 99. I remember how I thought hmmm, maybe I should go to cash but did not thinking oh well it can still run further.
It was cut in half on my Oct 2008 statement.
Being contrarian is a bitch. But while Mayer Amschel Rothschild had his saying "buy when there is blood in the streets" and Warren Buffet has his saying "be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful", mine is a bit simpler but no less poignant, "sell when others buy, and buy when others sell".
I will sell all my Texas real estate because the shale boom will go bust and I will continue to sell short this market, ride the short term misery and bask in the glory of the catastrophic destruction the next well planned and well orchestrated crisis delivers. I said silver would get to and go below 15 and that gold would get to 1100 and go below and they both are/will and then its time to back up the physical truck AFTER the great liquidity crunch comes.
I saw the same thing with the Y2K scare and people will sell their physical just like they passed up the opportunity to back up the truck in 1964 when it was announced no more silver in the popular coinage. The few contrarians who began to hoard were tin foil hat wearers. I have mine on as I type.
BS is BS is BS and no amount of nothing will permanently alter that reality. Proverbial can kicking simply delays the unavoidable arrival of reality. It is sad to me because mankind is really a supercharged powerhouse capable of incredible accomplishments when taken as a whole. As always, its the minority that does the heavy lifting based on the 80/20 rule but that has not changed in 100,000 years of human evolution. But human aspiration is an incredible force. And the greed of the few has also been with us for at least the last ten thousand years.
I recently began to read again Edward Gibbons tome on the rise and fall of the Roman empire. Having read all three volumes one lonely winter in 1982 it is interesting to revisit 30+ years later and following my personal visit to Rome in 2012. The USA empire is in fact fading because the pace now is faster than it was then so change comes quicker. I did not see it then but the '60's was the turning point for the USA like my father used to say and I suspect that the turmoil of 2015/16 will be the cliff. We'll see.