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January Jobs Spike Was So Predictable Unless You Are Bloomberg: But Will It Last?

Feb. 05, 2012 9:22 PM ET
Andrew Butter profile picture
Andrew Butter's Blog
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I noticed an article by Bloomberg where they said that the January jobs spike exceeded even the most optimistic forecast of their panel of forecasters.

Oh well, that Bloomberg's panel get's it wrong is...predictable.

There was one forecaster who predicted that from now, for the foreseeable future, on average, USA will add 270,000 new jobs a month, so 240,000 was marginally lower than that "optimistic" forecast.


Putting aside the grumbles about the quality of jobs, and the fact that BLS may revise those numbers up and down for the next couple of years, just because as they make clear, it's hard to measure things that are moving, more jobs are better news than less jobs.

And as a country slowly digs it's way out of the hole that crazy lending created, unless the world is going to end, there has to be a reversion to the mean line defined as nominal GDP divided by wage inflation.

Nominal GDP is going up slowly (what part of that is inflation is irrelevant), and wage inflation is muted, that means more jobs.

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