I’m always interested in what the great guru of bubbles has to say, I’m also always intrigued by what people say about what he says.
Reactions to his recent announcement in passing, in Davos, that commodities are a bubble and that gold is the “ultimate bubble”, included accusations that he was lying to cover a short position.
I can believe that Soros might be short, what I can’t believe is the idea that he is lying. I have followed Soros for years; I have never had any reason to re-examine my initial “Blink” reaction that he is anything more or less than what he claims to be, basically, a philosopher philanthropist who put’s his ideas and theories to trail in the real world, my impression is that with Soros what you see is what you get.
I was also interested to see that the vast majority of the “Soros is a liar” camp, spent most of the stock-market rally from the lows in March jumping up and down and screaming from the roof-tops that 666 would be re-visited, and that gold would go to $3,000; (I checked).
I was as always intrigued by his theory that bubbles are like a contagion that spread from one asset-class to another, and that according to him, always end up with gold, first the Dot.com, then real estate, then oil, now gold. If that theory is right, the good news is that this cycle of contagion may soon be coming to an end, once the ultimate backstop to BubbleOmics is breached.
My opinions on gold are on the table (40% overpriced now); I arrived at that conclusion from a different route to Soros. I could be wrong and Soros could be lying, but if I learned one thing about investing in the past twenty years, it’s you don’t bet against guys like Soros, even if they are lying.
Disclosure: No Positions