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"Cute Bad Guys": An Exercise in Bayesian Analysis

After noting a few days ago, that a young country singer had observed that "In real life, the bad guy is really cute," we wondered why that might be. This led to an exercise in Bayesian analysis, for which we came up with three possible explanations.

1) A statistical percentage of bad guys (and girls) are cute (and vice versa) but "selective memory" on the part of the singer led her to associate cuteness with badness, even though the two don't usually go together.

2) Cute guys (and girls) are allowed to "get away" with more things, are corrupted in the process, and therefore have a greater tendency to be bad than others who are not cute.

3) Bad guys (and girls) cover their tracks somewhat by being cute, thereby lessening the disapproval of others. Good people do so less often.

We don't think that the explanation is "randomness"  (number one). Therefore, we believe that some combination of 2 and 3 is at work. Not every bad person is cute, and not every cute person is bad, but there is at least a weak hypothesis that a disproportionate number of cute guys (and girls) are bad. That is to say, there may be enough forces at work to create a (weak) prior presumption.