Please Note: Blog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors.

Time To "Raise or Fold" In Afghanistan

A couple years ago, we were forced with the choice of either increaing our troop commitment, or getting out of Iraq; the troop levels we had there then weren't doing the job. So we started the "surge" of troops, and apparently, have beaten down the Iraqi rebels, before the prospective handover of Iraq to its government.

A similar situation appears to exist in Afghanistan, which President Obama has identified as being more important than Iraq. It's easy to see why. Afghanistan is a wedge between IRAN and Pakistan, and is not far from India and China. It is believed to be harboring Osama bin Laden. And one should not forget that this is where something 95% of the world's opium is grown, for use in producing heroin.

So there is a strong argument for an Afghan "surge." But the pacifistic President hasn't put his money where his mouth is. Nor has he done the converse, and  saved money by pulling our troops out. So we are stuck in a no-win, Catch 22 situation.

In poker, it's usually best to "raise or fold" (double the bet or retreat). If you "call," you are playing the other person's game. Unless you are holding four to a straight or flush and hope to "ambush" your opponent with a fifth. But this does not appear to be the case in Afghanistan.