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Sometimes "Wild" Predictions Come True

Last April, I published a somewhat whimsical prediction in a post, the last line of which  came true this morning.

Neither I, nor anyone else will always be right about such things. But collectively, we will hit our "wild" predictions quite often. That's why we need to be respectful when our colleagues publish things that we believe to be "off the wall." A statistical percentage of them will come true.

Byron Wien makes up an annual list of 25 surprises. About one -third of them come true. These are things that he believes will have a one in three chance of occurring, that he also believes have crossed few people's minds. It's often a shock when something of this sort does come true, but the possibilities were there all along. It's just that they weren't recognized.