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Success Is No Accident

|Includes: Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK)

"Success is no accident. It is hard work, perseverance, learning, studying, sacrifice and most of all, love of what you are doing or learning to do."
-Pele
 
It’s great to be able to speak your mind!  When you speak your mind writing research, it’s like working in a fish bowl - there is no escape and you are accountable for everything you say. 
 
I have been writing research my entire professional career and I have learned to take the good with the bad.  I like to take calculated risks; I’m not always right and being wrong when working in a fish bowl can be very painful.  However, the reward for knowing that you have helped someone else be successful is amazing.
 
It was a calculated risk to go to work for a start up, independent research firm in the midst of a financial crisis not seen in generations.  A year later we continue to take significant market share from broken business models.  The employees at Research Edge have one thing in common - we are students of the markets and love getting stocks right!  
 
Growing up I was a soccer player; a sport which most people think is boring.  The sport of soccer is actually a thinking man’s game.  The best soccer players in the world are nimble and know where the ball is going to be before it gets there.  The same is true for the market and individual stocks; know where they are going before they get there and you win!  Play the game that is in front of you and you will be one step ahead of the competition. 
 
Keith McCullough had never worked in a research fishbowl until he started Research Edge and we all are painfully aware that he did not play soccer! But over the past six months he has definitely been nimble and has known where the ball was going! 
 
For 2009, the entire set up was prefaced on his "Breaking the Buck" macro call and for a generational short squeeze in most global equity markets.  I don’t think there is another MACRO strategist on the street that made that call!  If there is, please let me know because I would like to tell him he should have been a soccer player too!


It is painful to watch those in charge of the country “react” to the buck breaking!  After the market starts to melt down on concerns about our AAA credit rating and the mighty dollar crashing, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner goes on Bloomberg TV and says “It’s very important that this Congress and this president put in place policies that will bring those deficits down to a sustainable level over the medium term.”  His target is to reduce the gap to 3% of GDP from around 13% this year.  Who is he kidding?
 
I know this is Obama speak, but let’s be realistic.  In the age of TRILLION dollar bail outs, the budget deficit is going up, not down.  One thing you can be sure of is “the medium term” will not be during his tenure as treasury secretary and potentially not during Obama’s term as president.
 
As we have said all year, the most dominant macro factor at work has been the US Dollar down and stocks up.  For three straight days, it’s been dollar down, stocks down; the dollar crashing is now a bad thing! 
 
The Safety trade and reflation are the only two themes that still have legs in this market.  The early cycle Consumer Discretionary and Technology name are breaking down, as we now only have 5 of the 9 sectors positive on both the durations of TREND and TRADE. 
 
While our Macro team has been on fire this year, the research team continues to score big too.  Today we are waking up to KeyBanc upgrading Autodesk (NASDAQ:ADSK) from Underweight to Hold after the company reported better than expected numbers.  ADSK has been in the virtual portfolio since 3/23 and looking to provide 50% return in just two months!  Well done Rebecca! It’s great to be on a real team again. Success is no accident.