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Quantifying The Year-End S&P 500 Rally With Year-End Targets For 2015

We analyze the year-end rally in the SPX, defined as the move over the last 12 trading days of the year, going back to 2004. The avearge move is +1.45% (see Figure 1). The best move was about 4%, projecting to the old highs (see Figure 2).

EFMeter.com SPX Year End Rallies

Figure 1: Year-end rallies in the SPX defined as the moves over the last 12 trading days of the year. Chart courtesy ETFmeter.com.

ETFmeter.com year end targets via StockCharts.com

Figure 2: The average 1.45% move projects to 2073 (where we are now), and a 4% move projects up to the prior highs at 2125. Chart courtesy StockCharts.com