We analyze the year-end rally in the SPX, defined as the move over the last 12 trading days of the year, going back to 2004. The avearge move is +1.45% (see Figure 1). The best move was about 4%, projecting to the old highs (see Figure 2).
Figure 1: Year-end rallies in the SPX defined as the moves over the last 12 trading days of the year. Chart courtesy ETFmeter.com.
Figure 2: The average 1.45% move projects to 2073 (where we are now), and a 4% move projects up to the prior highs at 2125. Chart courtesy StockCharts.com