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Shipping In Vietnam: Trai Thien USA Inc (PINK:TRTH)

Trai Thien USA Inc (PINK:TRTH)

Trai Thien USA is a fast-growing Vietnam-based dry bulk shipping company operating a 21,990 DWT fleet comprised of six geared bulk vessels specializing in providing ocean transportation services for raw material input items such as coal, ore, grain, lumber, cement, steel and fertilizer throughout the Southeast Asia region.

After China, the primary sources of future bulk demand are India, Brazil and Vietnam. The region contains three of the four global BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India, China), seen by economists as the future growth leaders in the world economy.

The Asia Pacific region accounts for 60% of the world's population and almost 70% of world sea-borne trade in bulk commodities.

In order to meet anticipated continued growth in demand from an expanding base of overseas and domestic Vietnamese customers, as well as to expand the geographic regions that it can service to include potentially more profitable routes in East and South Asia.

The Company's Vietnam-based operations are located in Ho Chi Minh City, which together with the surrounding areas, accounts for more than seventy percent of Vietnam's total annual cargo traffic.

Pink Sheets TRTH

Current Price $0.18

Current PE 4.19

Revenue Growth 148%

Target Price 2013 $3.40

HCM Rating Strong Buy

Financial Highlights

The emerging economies of the Asia Pacific (ASEAN) region will continue their growth pattern despite the continuing financial crisis in Europe according to the Asian Development Bank.

Free Trade Agreements including ASEAN, AFTA, CAFTA, ASEAN +3 will more than triple regional trade.

· Year-end 2011 revenues increased over 20.9% as compared to the previous fiscal year, from $12,232,991 in 2010 to $14,794,939 in 2011.

· Income from Operations increased over 148% from 2010 to 2011, from $1,051,543 to $2,615,000

· Net Income increased from a loss of $539,452 in fiscal 2010 to a positive $1,377,391 in 2011.

· The Company is operating a 21,990 DWT fleet comprised of six geared bulk vessels specialized in providing ocean transportation services for raw material input items such as coal, ore, grain, lumber, cement, steel and fertilizer throughout the Southeast Asia region.

The HCM Trade Forecast is predicting that world trade will grow by 73% in the next 15 years, with merchandise trade volumes in 2025 hitting $43.6trillion compared to today's $27.2trillion.

Investing in Tra Thien

ASEAN +3 is the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the People's Republic of China (including Hong Kong), Japan, and South Korea. Home to 600 million people, ASEAN has a combined gross domestic product (NYSEMKT:GDP) of US$1.8 trillion with total trade valued at $2 trillion among the countries.

ASEAN is set to explode as an economic force in 2015 as financial, trade and investment rules become integrated and seamless. ASEAN last year secured $78.5 billion in investments. Regional trade also increased by 32.9 percent to more than $2 trillion and Trai Thien is well positioned to capitalize on the growing Inter-ASEAN +3 trade.

ASEAN is beefing up various frameworks for cooperation and development within the region and with its trading partners, in preparation for regional economic integration by 2015.

The changing trade barriers have seen fast paced growth in agricultural and mineral exports around the region, these changes have already reflected themselves on the books at Trai Thien USA as revenue has almost tripled in the last year.

The Trai Thien fleet has the distinct advantage of having been designed to suit the region, while huge Dry Bulk Carriers service many areas. Most of the trade in agriculture and minerals is done from ports in ASEAN that cannot accommodate the large ships, nor can the large ships be loaded and unloaded at these smaller ports due to the lack of stevedoring infrastructure.

Trai Thien smaller fleet can service these ports directly, removing the additional costs of trans-shipping and adding savings in terms of cash and time to purchasers.

Based on corporate and market growth and given a conservative set of ratios in our financial model, we see Trai Thien trading over $3.40 in 2013.

The Fleet

• Fleet of highly versatile geared bulkers with average capacity of 3,700 DWT and average age of 3 years.

• Optimal payload capacity for growing small and medium production sector that dominates economic activity throughout the region.

• Focus on dry bulk commodities such as forestry products, grains, cement, steel, ore and coal.

• Vessels equipped with deck-side cranes which provide flexibility in cargo handling and accessing and servicing underdeveloped, lower cost secondary ports throughout the region.

• Draft efficiency and deck-side gears reduce dependency on major ports and reduce risk exposure to growing operational inefficiencies affecting them.

• In order to meet anticipated continued growth in demand from an expanding base of overseas and domestic Vietnamese customers, as well as to expand the geographic regions that it can service to include potentially more profitable routes in East and South Asia, Trai Thien has made deposits to acquire six larger 7600 DWT capacity new-buildings, which depending on the company's ability to meet additional capital resource requirements, are expected to be delivered in 2011 and 2012.

• Depending on the ability to raise approximately $50m in external funding required to cover outstanding balances due on vessels in construction, for which there is no assurance, the Company will focus on what it believes to be more profitable 7000-8000 DWT vessels in order to meet growing demand for larger payload capacities while still maintaining an ability to broadly access the secondary coastal and river ports that characterize the trade.

• Located in Ho Chi Minh City, the economic heart of Vietnam's trade and transportation activity.

• ASEAN satellite market benefits from geographic proximity to major world economic activity drivers China and India.

Trai Thien and China

Our research indicates that rising trade in ASEAN +3 will propel the ASEAN trade bloc of Southeast Asia nations to become China's largest trading partner by 2015.

The China Council for the Promotion of International Trade said the 2010 ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement removed trade barriers, and that the value of imports and exports between China and ASEAN states could surpass $500 billion within three years.

As China moves away from its dependency on export markets and encourages more trade with countries with which it has signed FTAs, the value of goods moving between the ASEAN bloc and China is forecast to increase at a faster rate than imports and exports between China and its more established trade partners.

"Thanks to zero tariffs, preferential trade policies and geographic advantages, both the increasing speed and scale of that trade will be in the forefront globally and ASEAN will become China's No. 1 trading partner by 2015," said Zhang Wei, vice chairman of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade.

First quarter 2012 trade between China and the ASEAN nations - Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam - increased 9.2 percent year-over-year. That is compared with a 2.6 percent gain in trade between China and the U.S. and a 1.6 percent decline in trade between China and the EU.

That growth followed the 24 percent increase in trade between ASEAN and China last year when the ASEAN bloc surpassed Japan to become China's third-largest trade partner after the EU and the U.S.

Trai Thien is located at the geographic centre of ASEAN +3 and is perfectly placed to capture increasing market share in a rapidly growing market.