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Paul Ebeling Crude Oil Summary

Crude Oil prices close Y 2009 with biggest annual gain in 10 yrs
Crude Oil in New York finished a bit higher Thursday, the last trading day of Y 2009,after climbing over 70% in the year, the biggest annual gainer in 10 yrs.

Light, Sweet Crude for February delivery was up 8c at US$79.36 bbl.

In London, Brent Crude for February delivery lost 10c to settle at US$77.93 bbl on the ICE Futures exchange.

In Y 2008, Crude futures were settled at US$44.60 and US$ 45.59 bbl in New York and London respectively.

Crude Oil prices were hovering around US$35 bbl until early February. On Feb. 12, 2009, Crude Oil futures dropped to US$33.55 bbl on New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), about 77% lower from the all-time high of US$147.27 bbl reached in July 2008.

Just as folks were trying to enjoy the cheap Crude Oil, prices took a U-turn and rallied through the Summer, Fall and into Winter. On October 21, NYMEX Crude futures settled above US$80 bbl for the first time during Y 2009 

In United States, the largest Oil consumption country in the World, the gross domestic production increased at an annual pace of 2.2% in Q-3, the first positive growth in 2 yrs.

Looking ahead, the economic recovery and USD will continue to dominate the energy markets.

Heffo and I believe that there are good reasons to be Bullish on Crude Oil prices long term in that both the International Energy Agency, OPEC and US Energy Department Energy Information Administration have all adjusted up their forecasts for the World fuel consumption in Y 2010.

The Overall Technical Outlook: Nymex Crude Oil (NYSE:CL)

Northside momentum in Crude Oil remains a up tentative in here with 4 hours MACD staying below signal line. Bias is Neutral for the now and some more sideway consolidation could be seen in here. But, any downside should be contained by the support at 76.19 and bring another run at the 82.0 resistance. A break of 76.19 will augur that rebound from 68.59 has completed and deeper fall should then be seen to 71.21 support 1st.

The bigger picture, the strong rebound put Crude Oil back above 55 days EMA and dampens the Bearish view that it has topped out.But for the moment I will stay neutral with focus on the 82.0 resistance. A break there will indicate that whole medium term rise from 33.2 is still in progress. Again for now my focus will be on the look out for a reversal signal as still expect rise to conclude inside 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone in the short term. --- Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr.  

Disclosure: Long Oil