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Macro thoughts


  • No inflation... yet -  USD crisis starts in '68, goes off gold standard in '71, not til '73 OPEC embargo + price hike quadruples CL price... years after the inflationary pressure were obvious. money are units of labor, there's a tremendous excess supply of labor, units of labor to money is falling = deflation
  • Why isn't it Gold at $2400?  Is debt (T-Bill) issuance by the US treasury soaking up the flood of USD?  What steps it?
  • China will not pressure USD, but instead will leg out of USD reserves all at once with creation of IMF SDR or similar construct - like when European FX rates froze before euro-conversion... then USD will tank
  •  What if this is it? No mean reversion, and equities are puffed up with false hopes of a return to "proper valuations..." Persistant high unemployment > 10%, rising food & energy prices, deflationary pressures on everything else, low interest rates, next to 0 money velocity. A body at rest tends to stay at rest: and the Fed / Treas efforts to move it again are like pushing a bowling ball with a string
  • It's times like these that justify equities' risk premia
  • Money is in units of labor,  as labor  gets cheaper, ceteris paribus, money gets more dear