Post the FDA AC meeting on Provenge in March 2007, I published two little pieces in this forum, terming Dendreon as the next Genentech/Amgen. Against its own advisors' recommendation, the FDA decided not to approve Provenge in May 2007. That corrupted decision killed thousands upon thousands of patients whose life would otherwise have been saved/prolonged and ruined thousands upon thousands of investors' financial life (yours truly included).
On April 28/2009, Dendreon released data from the IMPACT trial that met/exceeded the FDA's SPA. The way I see it, Provenge's approval to market is all but an approval letter from the FDA following Dendreon's submission of the revised BLA. Once on the market, Provenge will change the way cancers are currently treated. More than ever, I am feeling Dendreon as the Genentech/Amgen in the making. In my posts back in 2007, I have listed short-, mid-, and long-term catalysts to the stock, which I will not repeat here.
Why the stock is below 20 rather than above 30 now? The market can be a crazy place in the short run! People look at insider selling and say, oh my god, insiders are selling, so there must be bad news coming. Oh well, there is never a good time for insiders to unload. But if you were an insider, having your job as well as your retirement funds on the line, would you sell some to secure a comfortable financial life?
People are also talking about dilution from the secondary stock offering. Dilution? What dilution! The outstanding share counts increase, yes, but the company's coffer gets a lot richer. The way I see it, this is an excellent move by the company/CFO. Ever... follows Dendreon must be aware that the company is working on an ex-US partnership. The increased cash in the treasury has significantly strengthened the company's position at the negotiating table! There is also another possibility that this stock sale goes to a big pharma which may become Dendreon's ex-US partner. If that is true, we don't have dilution. Rather, we have gained strong support!
Owed to the devas... May 2007, my Dendreon position is currently miniscule and I am looking around to get hold to cash to add whenever I can.
Disclosure: long the stock and 2011 calls.