Friday June 24 2010: The 100/249/249 day :: x/2.5x/2.5x Growth Saturated Wilshire
The Wilshire Observable and Prospectively Predicted y/2.5y/2.5y Fractal Decay Series Within the Context the 100/249/249 day :: x/2.5x/2.5x Maximum Growth Series and the 43/105/103 day :: x/2.5x/2.5x Maximum Growth Series that composes the 249 day third fractal of the 100/249/249 day series.
The Wilshire's 27 JUNE-1 JULY 2011 day 16 to day 20 day second decay fractal predicted gapped lower low valuations.........
The 25 June WILSHIRE CRASH DEVALUATION DECAY SERIES :
8/15 of 20/19-20 day :: y/2.5y/2.5y
And the 25 June RECIPROCAL US 30 YEAR BOND BLOW-OFF MAXIMUM GROWTH SERIES:
13/32-33/9 of 32-33 days :: x/2.5x/2.5x
The global macroeconomy in its summation integrated proxy marker, the Wilshire's time evolved quarterly, monthly, weekly, and daily fractal valuations -
under the conditions of: overwhelming debt of the average citizen consumer and entry level post college worker; years of over produced, over supplied and over valued housing; collapsing entitlement payments of the US local governments, US states and European PIGS; concentrated credit and asset accumulation among the one percent Banking and Monetary System and Wealthy Elite with no reason by the current reward rule system to use that credit in investments in other than financial or derivative assets, and the declining retrenchment need for questionable value added jobs in a contracting economy leading to a decrease in private citizen new debt expansion -
The global macroeconomy in its integration proxy marker, the Wilshire has produced an ideal x/2.5x/2.5x :: 100/249/249 Day Growth Saturation series.
The 27 June - 1 July collapse of the Wilshire's valuation will fall in the terminal second fractal portion of a 34/83-85 quarterly fractal pattern beginning with the Volcker nodal low in 1982.
This 100/249/249 day :: x/2.5x/2.5x maximum growth expansion occurs in the terminal portion of a three phase 17/34/34 quarter :: x/2x/2x growth expansion starting at the Wilshire's nodal low in 1990.
The 100 day base begins on 13 February 2009 and at the inception of the decay portion of the preceding x/2.5x/2x/1.5x fractal.
This preceding fractal starting on the nodal low of 21 November 2008 was a caricatured: 10day(x)//28day(2.5x)//21day(2x)//15day(1.5x) series.
Note that 13 February2008 both represents day 21(2x) of the third phase growth fractal and day 1 of the 15 day(1.5x) 4th phase decay fractal.
This 15 day decay fractal ending on 6 March 2009 forms the base of a 15/37/30/21 day ::x/2.5x/2x/1.5x four phase fractal series ending on the nodal low on 8 July 2009.
This 15/37/30/21 day base is 100 days long and forms a composite fractal base (x) for the second fractal whose terminal nodal low is on 1 July 2010 with 249 days (2.5x) from 8 July 2009 nodal low to 1 July 2010 nodal low.
24 June 2011 is the 249th day of the third phase growth fractal which from its 1 July 2010 nodal low is composed of a 43/105/103 day :: x/2.5x/2,5x day three phase growth sequence. The last 103 days of the third fractal are composed of a10/24//24/48 day or a33/71 day sequence. Notice that the 24/48 day sequence is at an x/2x proportionality with expected 2-2.5x second fractal nonlinearity and that the 33/71 sequence is in the extreme portion of a 33/71 of 72.5 day first and second fractal series and at the extreme terminal portion of second fractal nonlinearity.
Note also that the 16 March 2011 33rd day of the 28 January 2011 33/71 day fractal sequence is a lower valuation than the 24 June 2011 day 71. The declining 28 January to 16 March slope line points the direction for the Wilshire's future valuations.
What is the final decay pathway for the Wilshire in the this historical nonlinear valuation time period?
The base fractal for the decay pathway is found in the ideal 2x growth area of the third growth fractal of the growth fractal series beginning on 1 July 2010.
The base sequence from nodal to nodal 1 July 2010 to 31 August 2010 was 43 days. The second fractal was composed of a caricatured x/2-2.5x/2x/x fractal of 17/39/34/18 days or 105 days.
The 2x third fractal ideal high of a 43/105 day sequence would occur on day 84-86 (42-43 day x base fractal).
31 May 2011 was day 85 of the 43/105/84-86 day ideal x/2.5x/2x and represented the final lower high dating both from 1 July 2010 and from 1982. The Wilshire's final high reversal day on 2 May 2011 occurred on day 65 of the third fractal and was close to a Fib ratio of 1.6x the 42 base (67 days),
Using the integrated element of fractal progression where incipient decay coincides and is initiated within terminal growth; 31 May 2011, is contained within the initiating base decay fractal.
25 May 2011 is the first day of an 8 day base fractal: 2/5/3 days containing the 31 May 2011 85th day final third fractal secondary high of the three phase 1 July 2011 43/105/85 day:: x/2.5x/2x fractal growth series.
This 8 day fractal forms the base fractal for a 8/20/19-20 day decay fractal (y/2.5y/2.5y) with the 19-20th expected low day matching the US 30 year bond 13/33/32-33 day :: x/2.5x/2.5x high day.
As of 25 June 2011
The Wilshire is 8/15 of 20/19-20 days :: y/2.5y/2.5y (with expected lower low nonlinearity on days 16-20 (27 June -1 July)) ....
and the credit entering receiving asset
The reciprocal 'growing' US 30 year bond is 13/33/9 of 32-33 days :: x/2.5x/2.5x. The third phase 32-33 day growth fractal is following a progression of 7/17/10-11 days or x/2.5x/1.5-1.6x (A Fibonacci ratio completing the third fractal.)
Does the complex macroeconomy of credit accumulation, asset accumulation, and debt accumulation have its own operating laws that are reflected by Saturation Macroeconomic's observable quantitative elegantly simple fractal patterns?
Do these laws represent natural deterministic feedback limits of debt expansion and the natural quantitative periodicity of economic growth and decay with greater magnitude limits even beyond historically strange monetary policy?
What is the chance that this observed quantitative fractal evolution is occurring by chance alone ?