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WINTER 2017-18 TURNING UNPREDICTABLE WITH CONSEQUENCES!

Summary

OCTOBER HAS SEEN MAJOR ALTERATIONS IN GLOBAL CLIMATIC MODEL: CAN WE DRAW ANY ACTIONABLE CONCLUSIONS?

CONTINUED ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS IN SEPT. & OCT. FOR N. AMERICA:

MIDSTREAM SHIFTS IN JET STREAM & THERMO-DYNAMIC MODIFICATION CAUSING CONTINUOUS ALTERATIONS IN NEXT MONTHS FORECAST:

WILL THESE TRENDS CONTINUE? TO BE ANSWERED IN COMING DAYS!

HOW WILL NATURAL GAS - COAL - OIL - RENEWABLES & ELECTRICITY BE IMPACTED INSOFAR AS PRODUCTION/CONSUMPTION - EXPORTS - PRICES & SHIFTING DEMANDS:

lwpcolonel

COMMENTS 10/26/2017

At this point, the Injection Season' seems to have the end in sight with a high likelihood of a lower than the 5 year average 'Peak Storage', by ~1%, and ~3-4% less than last year's peak. Definitely <3.9 Tcf and probably ~3.8 despite the mild weather.

CHANGING 'INPUTS' ARE FAVORING SURPRISES IN NATURAL GAS!

Higher 'exports' and 'lower' $ Natural Gas prices, which also promote a higher 'relative' population-weighted 'HDD', Natural Gas 'Feedstock Proportion' has lowered the likely 'Peak Storage'. This is expected to arrive in ~ 2 weeks +or-.

'JOKER' IN THE NATURAL GAS SEASONAL EQUATION

The 'joker' in the deck is the Northern Hemisphere's 'population-weighted' HDD's combined with possible 'domestic' production decreases, increased natural gas consumption domestically (including metallurgical coal replacements), and exports. All the demand side components for Natural Gas appear to support demand, including the overall North American 'heating' season.

LEVELS OF CONFIDENCE: HARD TO BE SPECIFIC IN THE MID-TERM

Only a 'sudden' and rapid 'upward' movement in Natural Gas prices in the U.S., appear as causes for real concern, insofar as my projection that Natural Gas Inventories in the U.S. will see their largest 'draw' in at least 3 years. If prices persist in the ~$3 range inventories could fall to ~1.5 Tcf before inventories begin growing again, however a March inventory as low as .9-1.1 Tcf is a realistic potential outcome as the key factors allow for that potential outcome, unlike last year.

VERY LOW NAT. GAS PRICES - HIGH EXPORT LEVELS - DECREASED PRODUCTION - PROBABLE COLDER WINTER - CONTINUED INCREASE IN ELECTRIC 'FEEDSTOCK' DEMAND

It appears that surprises will continue as the overall global climate, although trending warmer, is exhibiting increasing evidence of 'Increased Variability' & 'Frequent Extreme Events'. This can cause aberrant 'mid-term' regional climatic events which exhibit both hotter and colder record extremes, as well as, drier/wetter, and 'Jet Stream' alterations. These kinds of 'records' have filled the 'empirical' records and 'phenomenology' over the past 35 years with 'logarithmic' increases in geographic and temporal affectations.

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COMMENTS 10/9/2017 - link below

MY COMMENTS HAVE BEEN REFLECTING CHANGES IN POP-WEIGHTED HDDs & CDDs!

HDDs are definitely down throughout the entire Eastern half of the country. CDDs, on the other hand are alive and well. With daily production down by 2 Bcf, to be reflected in the next several weeks 'WEIRD' is going to be the key word for Natural Gas Inventories and prices.
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN? THERE MAY BE SOME BIG INJECTION SURPRISES!
Southwestern populated metro areas are still running high temps above average, with lots of Pop-Weighted CDDs. Los Angeles, San Diego, Phoenix, Tucson, all the way to Houston and even New Orleans, despite Hurricanes, are racking up the CDDs as though it was early September. On the other hand, the lower temperatures, with HDDs attached, are limited to the Front Range corridor, for Population Weighted HDDs. Denver, as I am writing this at 4PM Mountain Daylight Time, the temperature is 37 F, and Colorado Springs, is about the same, but with snow showers.

EASTERN HALF STILL HOT FROM NYC-CHICAGO-ST LOUIS-HOUSTON-NASHVILLE

Now these Cold and Natural Gas consuming, snow storms are ending and the weather is moderating. However, the injections are a minimum of a week behind. Meanwhile, Chicago, Saint Louis, Louisville and Cincinnati, and the New York, Megalopolis, is all behaving like its around Labor Day!
STILL A LOT OF A/C USAGE THROUGHOUT THE E/MIDWEST URBAN CENTERS!
That should run some surprises as these areas, with the exception of the Ohio Valley are strongly Natural Gas intensive, regarding electric generation capacities. In the end, some regions will see more injections than their 5 year average and other reporting regions will see less, starting with this Thursday, and continuing for at least the rest of October.
FOR THE RECORD:

THIS WINTER SEASON WAS SUPPOSED TO SEE A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL MEAN TEMPS!

Will that still happen? Maybe is the answer! The atmospheric CO2 levels, now above 400 ppm, for the 3rd consecutive year have a strong tendency to maintain warmer mean global temperatures. Ocean temperatures have been well above average and have been increasing faster than during the end of the 20th century.

TIPPING POINT FOR INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC CO2/METHANE ETC. RATES MAY BE PAST!

None of these bodes well as more methane is released in Sub-Polar previously 'glaciated', over 'Perma-Frosted' land masses. As this trend expands, the rotting organic material [previously frozen for >14k years will continue to release CO2 and Methane into the atmosphere independent of global fossil fuel emissions. This gives off both heat, as the 'rotting' organic matter heats up much like compost at your own home-site, and greatly increased atmospheric CO2 and Methane [just to name 2], without any additional human activity. In other words we have increased the temperatures enough to expose these previously frozen lands to the sunlight and with a darker surface [Albedo] the phenomenon of melting permafrost and glaciers should continue without any further human impetus.

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ADDED COMMENTS 10/9/2017 -link below

MY COMMENTS HAVE BEEN REFLECTING CHANGES IN POP-WEIGHTED HDDs & CDDs!

HDDs are definitely down throughout the entire Eastern half of the country. CDDs, on the other hand are alive and well. With daily production down by 2 Bcf, to be reflected in the next several weeks 'WEIRD' is going to be the key word for Natural Gas Inventories and prices.

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN? THERE MAY BE SOME BIG INJECTION SURPRISES!

Southwestern populated metro areas are still running high temps above average, with lots of Pop-Weighted CDDs. Los Angeles, San Diego, Phoenix, Tucson, all the way to Houston and even New Orleans, despite Hurricanes, are racking up the CDDs as though it was early September. On the other hand, the lower temperatures, with HDDs attached, are limited to the Front Range corridor, for Population Weighted HDDs. Denver, as I am writing this at 4PM Mountain Daylight Time, the temperature is 37 F, and Colorado Springs, is about the same, but with snow showers.

EASTERN HALF STILL HOT FROM NYC-CHICAGO-ST LOUIS-HOUSTON-NASHVILLE

Now these Cold and Natural Gas consuming, snow storms are ending and the weather is moderating. However, the injections are a minimum of a week behind. Meanwhile, Chicago, Saint Louis, Louisville and Cincinnati, and the New York, Megalopolis, is all behaving like its around Labor Day!

STILL A LOT OF A/C USAGE THROUGHOUT THE E/MIDWEST URBAN CENTERS!

That should run some surprises as these areas, with the exception of the Ohio Valley are strongly Natural Gas intensive, regarding electric generation capacities. In the end, some regions will see more injections than their 5 year average and other reporting regions will see less, starting with this Thursday, and continuing for at least the rest of October.

FOR THE RECORD:
THIS WINTER SEASON WAS SUPPOSED TO SEE A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL MEAN TEMPS!

Will that still happen? Maybe is the answer! The atmospheric CO2 levels, now above 400 ppm, for the 3rd consecutive year have a strong tendency to maintain warmer mean global temperatures. Ocean temperatures have been well above average and have been increasing faster than during the end of the 20th century.

TIPPING POINT FOR INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC CO2/METHANE ETC. RATES MAY BE PAST!

None of these bodes well as more methane is released in Sub-Polar previously 'glaciated', over 'Perma-Frosted' land masses. As this trend expands, the rotting organic material [previously frozen for >14k years will continue to release CO2 and Methane into the atmosphere independent of global fossil fuel emissions. This gives off both heat, as the 'rotting' organic matter heats up much like compost at your own home-site, and greatly increased atmospheric CO2 and Methane [just to name 2], without any additional human activity. In other words we have increased the temperatures enough to expose these previously frozen lands to the sunlight and with a darker surface [Albedo] the phenomenon of melting permafrost and glaciers should continue without any further human impetus.

Oct 9, 2017. 06:36 PMLink
Weather Undermined Tight Natural Gas Balances
- HFIR Energy

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COMMENTS OF 10/7/2017 - link below

THURSDAY'S REPORTED NATURAL GAS INJECTION WAS MINUTE BUT ------ HAVE STORMS AFFECTED THE ACCOUNTING?

Before, I state anything else, I'd like to say that the injection seems very small, comparatively, and that their could be some Natural Gas unaccounted for that simply becomes accounted for in the next several EIA Thursday reports. There are inherent errors in any system that attempts to account for every cubic foot of Natural Gas every week. That's why corporate reports are quarterly and annually rather than weekly, it would really be difficult.

COLLECTIVELY:
1st HALF OF SEPTEMBER SAW FEWER CDDs & 2nd HALF SAW POP-WEIGHTED RECORD CDDs!

Again, 'Population-Weighted' degree days, especially large, multi-regional aggregates, within a short temporal forecast window, is where I know my business. Having said that, the coming weeks injection report, Thursday, should show an increased injection over the prior week, possibly ~80-85 Bcf assuming disrupted exports and large numbers of power outages are still in this week's injection numbers. The following Thursday could be higher, ~90, but the way things are accounted for, I could have the number backwards. The main point from my perspective and statistcial modeling formulation, an injection of ~170-175 Bcf seems probable as a total for the next 2 weeks.

SOUTH CENTRAL REGION IS THE MOST PHYSICALLY IMPACTED BY WEATHER SKEWED EVENTS!

The 'South Central' which had a 'Net Withdrawal', last week, and includes Alabama, Arkansas, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Oklahoma and Texas may begin seeing a shift toward 'Injection', increasingly over the rest of the month, after the coming week's report. As the month progresses, it looks like the 'South Central' is about as sure a thing as statistical models can provide. The only 'variables' that could reduce 'injection' in the region are; 1) Increased Exports out of the ports between Corpus Christi and Louisiana, 2) A lack of storage, gathering and transportation (Midstream) facilities in unimpaired working order, after the multiple Hurricanes that have affected the region this year have taken their toll, 3)- the sum of Electrical generation capacity off-line throughout this period.

Oct 7, 2017. 04:19 PMLink
Natural Gas Storage Forecast For Next Week
- HFIR Energy

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ADDED COMMENTS 10/7/2017 - link below

POPULATION WEIGHTED HDDs ON TRACK FOR A BIGGER # OVERALL SINCE 2014-2015!

Population-Weighted, most definitely, especially in the Eastern half of the country. However, you certainly know my expertise is climate, NOT injections and withdraws of Natural Gas.

MY PROD/TRADE INFO ISN'T AS CURRENT or DETAILED AS CLIMATIC BUT--

Since most of our investments are energy related I am aware of the overall production and net 'import/export' balance. Speaking as someone a bit behind the curve in the most current upstream activity, it appears that production is exceeding last years, but more may be in the form of DUCs, than in 2016. The exportation was temporarily 'slightly' reduced, primarily from the Gulf and the East coast, but that's past tense now, and slight. Meanwhile increased shipments to India, and other Asian destinations are ramping-up. Also, the Mexican 'outflow' has continued its month-by-month/year-to... increase, which is expected to build over the next 4+ months.

THE HEAVILY URBANIZED SW MSAs ARE RUNNING HOT WHEREAS MW ROCKIES ARE RUNNING COLD!

Of course, no one lives in Montana, Wyoming and Idaho, (comparatively) but those that do will be using heat and that's primarily Natural Gas, and Firewood (small applications). Phoenix, Tucson, LA, San Diego, Houston and points in-between are still running 5-12 F above normal, and those Metro areas alone represent >30 million urban a/c consumers with high temps between 90-100+ between now and the middle of the week.
A SMALLER SHOULDER SEASON INJECTION THAN 5 YR AVG SEEMS LIKELY!
For all of the aforementioned reasons I see next weeks injections to be lower than the 5 year average, and the overall withdrawal season to exceed either of the last 2. That, of course is an extrapolation, and once again, my expertise is in Climate and Energy investment is just how we generate an income, with other parties doing the actual operations (Exxon, Chevron etc. since 1961).

Oct 7, 2017. 12:37 AMLink
Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report - Don't Get Too Excited, Bearish Storage Builds Ahead
- HFIR Energy

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COMMENTS OF 10/6/2017 - link below

LOWER INJECTION DUE TO HEAT WAVE: NEXT WEEK INJECTION HIGHER BUT STILL BELOW 5 YR AVG.!

The Natural Gas injection is smaller than last week, due to the heat wave that is reflected in those numbers, but the next 2 weeks appear to be warmer in the Eastern U.S. than normal, which means continued use of Air Conditioning. The Ohio Valley, NYC/Megalopolis, and upwards toward the upper Mississippi River valley are all, in varying degrees, far above normal, and where the highest populations are, the greatest number of 'Population-Weighted' - 'CDD's are projected to occur. This favors above average electric demand.
In the West, it's projected to be colder South of Alberta, albeit, where the population is sparse, but hotter than average in the Southern corridor from LA to Houston. For instance, Phoenix is projected high temps ~100 F, and that metro area has >4 million people, whereas Tuscon, normally significantly cooler by now, is also projected to have >95 F average highs for at least the next week. The Denver, Colorado Springs area, (Front Range) may see increased usage for Natural Gas heating during the period, as overnight lows have been consistently below freezing, especially just beyond the city limits, where the bulk of the 'population-weighted' HDDs are expected. This also favors above average electric demand.

Overall, next week's injection may be more than this weeks owing to the lack of the extreme heat wave in the Eastern half of the country (still warm: NOT extreme), but it should be substantially below the 5 year average injection for next week report. Thereafter, is still in need of an update.

Oct 6, 2017. 11:48 AMLink
Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report - Don't Get Too Excited, Bearish Storage Builds Ahead
- HFIR Energy

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COMMENTS OF 10/4/2017 - link below

THE CASE FOR REDUCED INJECTIONS OF NATURAL GAS IS VALID:
OCTOBER IN PLAY!

WHERE DID THE COLD FRONT HIT 'HARDEST' IN THE U.S.? WHERE NO ONE LIVES!

Earlier today I wrote comments which included 'some' but NOT most of what follows.

HERE TEMPERATURES ARE AVERAGING 10-20 F BELOW AVERAGE!

The 'Cold Front' clearly has been weaker than expected with 1 Exception: DIRECTLY SOUTH OF ALBERTA in some of the LEAST populated regions in the U.S. -- 'Idaho', 'Montana', and western 'Wyoming' will be the coldest, 'this week' versus the average temperatures, but LACK 'population' throughout the 1/2 million square kilometer area, with under 1 million people -- in total.

JUST BEYOND THAT REGION INCLUDES DENVER-COL. SPRINGS-SALT LAKE CITY ETC!

The next hardest hit areas, in terms of temperatures below average, are along the 'Front Range' of the Rockies, including the corridor which includes Metro Denver, Colorado Springs, and wraps in a circular track toward Salt Lake City, and Reno.
HOTTER THAN AVERAGE ALONG SOUTHERN TIER OF WESTERN STATES NEXT 15 DAYS!
Once you get down toward the Mexican border, between 30-33 N Latitude, between the Pacific Coast, [LA, San Diego] across to the Mississippi River, average temperatures project toward 10+ F for at least the next 15 days [collectively]. The hottest, in the west, from a 'mean' and 'pop-weighted' basis with 'duration' factored in, is around Phoenix, Arizona. There, for instance, the next 10 days will see highs between 95-102 F. Nearby suburbs may actually see higher temps, and are currently >100 F @ approximately 5 PM their time. Although this isn't unprecedented for the Phoenix area in October, 5 consecutive days during September's last week saw temperatures ~87 for a high with none exceeding 90 F, officially at the airport. However, Tuesday was officially 97 F, Wednesday, 98 F, and tomorrow is predicted to be ~100 F. That area will no doubt see no let up in its population weighted 'Electric Demand'. Tucson is also forecast to be ~100 F in the near future. Tucson is typically 5 F cooler than Phoenix this week, but that isn't the way its working out, as both are hovering around 100 F for daytime highs, in the foreseeable future.

POPULATION WEIGHTED TEMPERATURE IMPLICATIONS!

Of most importance for Natural Gas, the Metro Phoenix area has over 4.6 million people and Metro Tucson has ~1 million.
The Eastern 'Megalopolis Region' encompassing much of the 'Middle Atlantic' & 'New England' States, ~50 million people are seeing its largest city NYC, with an official 'Standard Metro Statistical Population' of >20 MILLION is experiencing MEAN TEMPERATURES >15+ F, above the norm. NYC is forecasting 83 F tomorrow and it average high for then is 67 F! Boston is expecting 80 F, its average high would be 65. Washington DC & Baltimore expect significantly higher temperatures for the next week, ~85F.
Turning toward the Ohio Valley, high temperatures in the 86-92 F levels are being experienced now and predicted in places such as Saint Louis, Louisville, Cincinnati, Pittsburg, and their surrounding regions which include another 35 million people. Add Nashville, Atlanta, Memphis, Charlotte, and Raleigh Durham and most of the country's population will be still running their A/C's during what is usually open window weather. In the West, around Denver and the 'Front Range' heat is already in use, and Natural Gas is the primary source along with electricity.

SHORT TERM WARMER BUT 'LONGER TERM' MORE LIKE 2014-2015 WINTER AS PROJECTED!

I had been projected a winter along the lines of a 2013-14, 2014-2015 for North American this year since March. The only wrinkle has been the change in the 'trajectory' of the last major 'Cold Front' as well as the excessive amount of "Thermo-Dynamic Modification", as the front 'Overspread' regions that had previously 'Mean' temperatures, 6-13 C above normal between September 8 and September 30th. We are referring to a 3 million square kilometer region which began with ~ -40-50 C, 'official' overnight lows in the 'central' - 'Source Region' of the 'Continental' - 'Sub-Polar' -- Frontal Air Mass. That frigid zone was essentially due West of the Hudson Bay, over the past weekend. Contrary to earlier forecasts much of the Central and Eastern half of the U.S. and Canada, have been warmer than expected. In essence most population-weighted metropolitan areas in the Eastern U.S. are well above normal, despite the Cold Front. Saint Louis, Cincinnati, Chicago, Nashville, Washington DC, NYC, Boston (draw a huge circle extending above the Canadian Border & South) and those populated urban nodes are still seeing CDDs rather than neutral or HDDs for the most part. That should continue the increased demand for electricity during the 'Shoulder Season' -- October/November.

THE CLIMATE IS IN A BIT OF A MUDDLE BUT I'LL HAVE TIME TO INVESTIGATE IT TONIGHT!

Whereas, it is far from hot in Chicago and NYC the temperatures have rebounded much faster than projected. Further South, Fort Knox yesterday was officially 88 F and last week it was predicted to be 75-77 F. NYC, Boston, same deal and the A/C was off here just 1 day, Saturday night, I believe, adjacent to Fort Knox. Right now, its 83 F, a bit cooler than yesterday, but the normal high for today is <70 F. The foreseeable future is continuing above our projections which supports more electrically usage of both Natural Gas and Coal than would be otherwise expected. That's short term ---- I going out now but if more weather details are available and I have time, I'll post them if there's any interest.

THE TOP PARAGRAPHS I JUST CONFIRMED IN THE PAST HOUR BUT I HAVEN'T PROOFED IT YET [for grammar, spelling, syntax etc.]!

Oct 4, 2017. 08:34 PMLink
Natural Gas Market Is Much More Forward Looking Than You Think
- HFIR Energy

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COMMENTS OF 10/4/2017- link below

SHORT TERM WARMER BUT 'LONGER TERM' MORE LIKE 2014-2015 WINTER AS PROJECTED!

I had been projected a winter along the lines of a 2013-14, 2014-2015 for North American this year since March. The only wrinkle has been the change in the 'trajectory' of the last major 'Cold Front' as well as the excessive amount of "Thermo-Dynamic Modification", as the front 'Overspread' regions that had previously 'Mean' temperatures, 6-13 C above normal between September 8 and September 30th. We are referring to a 3 million square kilometer region which began with ~ -40-50 C, 'official' overnight lows in the 'central' - 'Source Region' of the 'Continental' - 'Sub-Polar' -- Frontal Air Mass. That frigid zone was essentially due West of the Hudson Bay, over the past weekend. Contrary to earlier forecasts much of the Central and Eastern half of the U.S. and Canada, have been warmer than expected. In essence most population-weighted metropolitan areas in the Eastern U.S. are well above normal, despite the Cold Front. Saint Louis, Cincinnati, Chicago, Nashville, Washington DC, NYC, Boston (draw a huge circle extending above the Canadian Border & South) and those populated urban nodes are still seeing CDDs rather than neutral or HDDs for the most part. That should continue the increased demand for electricity during the 'Shoulder Season' -- October/November.

THE CLIMATE IS IN A BIT OF A MUDDLE BUT I'LL HAVE TIME TO INVESTIGATE IT TONIGHT!

Whereas, it is far from hot in Chicago and NYC the temperatures have rebounded much faster than projected. Further South, Fort Knox yesterday was officially 88 F and last week it was predicted to be 75-77 F. NYC, Boston, same deal and the A/C was off here just 1 day, Saturday night, I believe, adjacent to Fort Knox. Right now, its 83 F, a bit cooler than yesterday, but the normal high for today is <70 F. The foreseeable future is continuing above our projections which supports more electrically usage of both Natural Gas and Coal than would be otherwise expected. That's short term ---- I going out now but if more weather details are available and I have time, I'll post them if there's any interest.

Oct 4, 2017. 02:12 PMLink
Natural Gas Price Drop Presents An Excellent Buying Opportunity
- HFIR Energy

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COMMENTS OF 10/2/2017 - link below

JET STREAM TOOK A SHARP TWIST:
SNOWING IN CALGARY & SUMMER RETURNS TO S. EASTERN PROVINCES!

Edmonton, Alberta was in the mid 70s last week, at present, 2PM Mountain Standard Time it is 34 F and still below freezing in the outlying exurbs. To the South, about 3 degrees of 'latitude', Calgary at 51 N 114 W is experiencing a blizzard as I write this @ 3:20 PM EDT, (2PM Mountain Standard Time) and they won't be warming up any time soon though parts of Eastern Ontario and Quebec province, essentially 'East' of the Manitoba/Minnesota border are experiencing temperatures far above normal and are expected to continue.

Oct 2, 2017. 03:23 PMLink
Natural Gas Price Drop Presents An Excellent Buying Opportunity
- HFIR Energy

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COMMENTS OF 10/2/2017 - link below

WHAT HAPPENED TO THE COLD FRONT: CANADIAN TEMPS AS LOW AZ -40-45 F over WEEKEND!

The change in forecasting that was triggered by the recent 'Cold Front's' LACK of 'lasting' or 'widespread' effect has caused the revisions in October forecasting for North American, 'population-weighted' metro areas. Now, instead of a fast turn toward Autumn, we are seeing a return to summer --- but they're lower 'Levels of Confidence', statistically speaking.

Oct 2, 2017. 02:50 PMLink
Natural Gas Price Drop Presents An Excellent Buying Opportunity
- HFIR Energy

I PLAN TO TRY TO FORECAST THE GLOBAL & NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER & HOW IT RELATES TO ENERGY COMMODITIES FROM AN ENERGY INVESTOR'S PERSPECTIVE WHO HAPPENS TO ALSO BE A 'RETIRED' - 'STRATEGIC PLANNER' & 'CLIMATIC RESEARCHER'

These [ABOVE] are some of the Climatic and Energy related comments that I have placed on 'Seeking Alpha'. They are thematic and I put them in reverse chronological order over the past 4 weeks. There are other similar themed comments that I may 'BLOG' separately very shortly. I am going to try to sort out the overall meaning and make a more detailed and coherent summary out of this on an ongoing basis.

If I can figure out how to 'embed' the graphical documentation I have collected over the past 35 years I will try to do that as well. If anyone would care to guide me, as to how to import documents and graphics, I would appreciate it, as ordinarily I have this done for me and just provide the test and graphics separately. At my age this is actually a challenging endeavor [the embedding of graphics and charts as well as mastery of the English language.]

Disclosure: I am/we are long XOM, CVX, COP, MRO, SO, DUK, PPL, NEE, PEG, MDU, BKH, PSX, MRO, MPC.

Additional disclosure: A large portion of our overall income comes from a diversified and long term Energy Overweight investment position that we are currently reevaluating in light of ongoing changes in the Energy marketplace - worldwide.