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Net Domestic Natural Gas Withdrawal Forecast 90-110 Bcf (March 22 For Week Ending 3/16)


Increased Domestic Production - Increased Canadian Imports - Regional Supply Shortages due to Inadequate Transit Capacities - Slow Ramp-Up of New Export Capacities at Cove Point.

Today's Inventory Forecast: ~1.42 to 1.44 Tcf which is Bullish due to Strong Domestic Production required for Injection Season to Reach Target Peak Inventory of ~4.2 Tcf by Early November!

Combination of Increased LNG Liquefaction Facility expansions - Expanded Distribution Capacity via Pipeline Completions - Continued Additions of Natural Gas Electric Generation Facilities and Coal Closures - Pipelined Mexican-bound Exports.

Continued Increased Global Natural Gas Demand partially due to Increased EV proportions as well as Trains, Buses, Trucks, Harbor & Heavy-Equipment & Replacing Metallurgical Coal - Transportation Fuel.

Surplus North American Production  keeps a Lid on Prices while providing an Ample Profit for Energy Multinationals while Domestic Producers take Back Seat to Upstream-Oil aiming-toward 11-12 Mbpd Record!

Natural Gas Production Continues to be Incentivized by Lower Withdrawal Season Ending Inventory & Midstream Completions

Withdrawal Forecast for Report issued Thursday March 22, 2018 for Week Ending March 16th!

Net Withdrawal Forecast from 90-110 Bcf with ~4/5 of the Withdrawal from "Midwest" and "Eastern" Regions!

In the week ending March 16th, (EIA Reporting date 3/22/2018) A Larger Proportion of Natural Gas and Less Coal was burned for Electric generation Feedstock and the Northeast and Middle Atlantic 'sub-region' of the Eastern Statistical Region. However, despite this, much of the Natural Gas utilized was Imported or Unavailable so the potential Domestic Withdrawal that should have occurred appears to have been blunted. Moreover, apart from the "Midwest" region, there was little Overall Net Withdrawals from the "Mountain", "Pacific" and "South Central". Population-Weighted CDDs won't show up significantly until Next Weeks Report, for the week ending March 23rd, Released on March 29th.

Oil Becomes Energy Focus as Saudi Aramco and U.S. Shale-Oil Fight for Market Domination while Russia & other OPEC Member Nations Await Outcome!

Meanwhile Interest Rates rise as Midstream project completions are delayed, leaving the most productive Natural Gas region stranded. Without adequate Takeaway Capacities to serve or reach nearby Export sites, like Cove Point, and major Northeastern urban centers, such as NYC, who must limit Natural Gas usage, managed by Con Edison (limited to 1.6% annual increases despite a State mandated program to convert Oil Heating to Natural Gas), and Boston, whose lack of pipelines has forced them to import expensive LNG from Qatar. All these impediments, including Tax Reform, and the surprise unfavorable FERC rulings regarding MLPs (midstream service providers for Natural Gas connection completions) coinciding with higher interest rates, from the Fed too. Other issues, such as "Protectionist Tariffs" and blundered Tax Reform act to hinder the 2H2018, and the result is pushing the U.S. closer to Recession.

Disclosure: I am/we are long D, NEE, SO, DUK, PEG, PPL, BKH, MDU, COP, PSX, MRO, MPC, EPD, BPL, ENBL, PAA.

Additional disclosure: The issues concerning Energy policy an trade effect both the entire nation and in the long term, the entire world. Events appear to be in the process of being manipulated in order to achieve goals not in the national interest or the world's. I would have done a far more complete write-up, but to date I have received comments from 4 people on 54 Blogs, some of which required 10-12 hours to prepare. So if anyone is interested in the topic let me know, otherwise this will be among the last of these Blogs that I will be posting here. Thank you.