Gold Price - HardRock's Forecast
Using GLD as the proxy for Gold's price, da Rock did some calculus today. Using regression analysis on the daily price for the last two years, here is what I discovered. Gold is following a quadratic equation of the second order. The equation is a squared function. The equation is in the graph below.
The R2 statistic for this coorelation works out to .85 which is a rather close fit. This means that the equation explains about 85% of the action in the Gold price
Then taking this mathematics a step further, I used the equation to predict the prices 120 days into the future. It seems Gold may be close to breaking the $1400 price barrier by the end of the year.
Earlier in the day I did the same analysis for my favourite gold stock Great Basin Gold, which is here: https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/415953-hardrock/82397-gbg-price-forecast-double-in-4-months
Now the curious thing is that in the GBG analysis, the regression analysis found that the GBG stock price is following a quadratic equation of the 4th order, which means it is a square of the Gold prices which in itself is a squared equation. This seem to make sense, as a gold mining equity should leverage the base Gold price.
A word to the wise, there is a definate trend upwards for both Gold and GBG!
Gold luck to you all!
Disclosure: Long GBG