Please Note: Blog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors.

May 20, 2010

|Includes: DXD, Alphabet, Inc. Cl C (GOOG), JPM, QID-OLD, SPXU-OLD

The market continues to mete out both a cruel and unusual punishment to those sad souls unfortunate enough to be long this environment.  To be sure, the amount of negativity out there, as reflected by any number of indicators, is certainly extreme.  The fact that these oscillators, surveys and the like are and have been pinned to the floor makes this market truly dangerous.  As Yeats wrote:

    Turning and turning in the widening gyre
    The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
    Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
    Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
    The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
    The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
    The best lack all conviction, while the worst
    Are full of passionate intensity.      

Now hopefully this isn't the "Second Coming" of the 2008 market, but I try to remain open to any and all possibilities.  We all have our opinions, of course, but ultimately it always comes down to the price action and volume signatures.  I've always doubted the "2008 Redux" thesis, to be honest, as it seemed too obvious, but, then again, anything is possible.

As it stands, however, I lightened up on all of my positions throughout the day, though I am still quite short.  I'll now let the trades run their course.  This is what a healthy profit cushion (a trader's only real friend) gets you!         

We have our historical precedents, and, based on these, we have our methodology.  As Mr. Yeats' poem about the Europe of an earlier yet no less tumultuous epoch shows: the more things change, the more they stay the same.   

Disclosure: Short GOOG, JPM; long SPXU, DXD, QID