Please Note: Blog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors.

The Daily Stock Report 09 Mar

If you're interested about Stock Market Education, please see day trading strategies at www.tradestocksamerica....

They say “the best things in life are free” and with TradeStocksAmerica.com, this has never been truer! Visit us online today and get in touch with professional experts in the online stock trading industry with TradeStocksAmerica's Trading Room. This newly-offered free trial provides you with expert advice from real professionals as well as discussion forums in real-time. The TSA Trading Room also features our archived commentary, analysis, and market expectation reports 24 hours a day. It gets even better with our free learning center available to anyone with an Internet connection. Sign up for a free trial of their Daily Stock Report Newsletter because it provides subscribers with video and text reports by email that give top stock picks for the next day as well as current market commentary and proven trading strategies for online stock trading. Our sample below shows how comprehensive our daily reports are. We cover everything including trading strategies, stock market education, investing tips, techniques, and much more to help you get the highest return from your online stock trades.

March 9, 2009  Monday Evening

The stock market is still in a sustainable downtrend with no sharp drops and large volume days.  Even though we are deeply oversold, we are getting even more oversold.  We are still looking for some sort of relief rally but not likely to see a big buying spree which would establish the classic V bottom that we usually see IF the volume and price drops were sharp.

Notice the banking stocks did move up sharply today with USB up 15.5%, BAC up 19.4%, and WFC up 15.8%.  If the market turns around the next day or two, these 3 bank stocks will have another 1-2 days up but if you are sitting on nice profits on these now, the smart play is to sell most of it tomorrow as it is likely to have a follow through on the upside.  Watch for the same pattern of these banking stocks peaking followed by sharp selling but if we get some catalyst news, like maybe something intelligent out of the White House

Study the insurance stocks listed below, PRU and MET with HIG and PFG as higher risk, lower stock prices.  PRU and MET are excellent opportunities.

Oil is still moving up more, up another 3.4% today but it isn’t taking any oil stocks with it, except for USO, which was sold last week.  Wall Street doesn’t trust the gain in oil prices will hold but eventually oil stocks should start rebounding.

Intermediate Trade Positions:   New ideas:  PRU, Prudential Insurance looks like it is trying to bottom here and could be quite a nice potential profit here either as a swing trade long or possibly could last longer.  Worth a small long position here, building gradually.

MET, Metropolitan also has similar opportunity.  Worth a small long position here.

HIG, Hartford is a lower priced stock so this could be considered as more of a speculative trade idea.

PFG, Principal Financial Group is also in the same sector but has not stopped going down.  This is also a lower priced stock at $5.88 at the close today.  Set an alert on this and watch it along with other insurance stocks listed above.  Higher risk trade than PRU and MET.

CME, CME Group. This stock could easily spike and make higher highs if the market turns around and moves up.  Worth a small long position here.

AZO, Autozone is an auto parts store that people seem to be repairing their cars as opposed to buying new ones.  Let it come down a couple more days and look for $142-143 for a small long position.

Swing Trades:   New Ideas:  AAPL, Apple Computer.  Watch this for possible buy entry this week.  Current price is $83.10 but $78 is your line in the sand to sell.  Watch the market for another possible 1-2 down days in this and if it approaches 78-79, it would be worth a small position long.

COKE, Coca Cola Bottling should be watched for a possible swing trade long.  Look for a little more downside before considering buying long.

Day Traders/Intraday stock ideas:    Excellent intraday trading today and likely to continue tomorrow.  FSLR, First Solar is moving up so the drop is likely to be shallow with a bigger pop.  Continue to watch ICE, BLK, CME, POT, MON, MOS, AMZN, AAPL, FSLR, BIDU, USB, WFC, JPM and any high volume, high volatility stocks. 

I am still expecting some sort of substantial rally in the stock market sometime this year mostly driven by the massive stimulus that has already been poured into the system plus the planned stimulus package being proposed now.  Longer term though, in a couple years down the road, no doubt the taxpayer is going to have to pay for such the high debt amounts that the US government (and other countries) have taken on.   So tax rates probably will rise in coming years, interest rates will very likely have to rise as inflation surfaces and likely the bear market resumes sometime down the road.  But we don’t have to be stuck in a miserable cycle like most investors.  With the techniques and approach to the market, we will still thrive.

If you have been uncomfortable shorting stocks, which most people are, learn to get used to it, this will be a useful tool in the coming years.

When I list several stocks from the same sector, like the housing industry for example, don’t short all of them unless you are well diversified and it represents a small percentage of your total stock account (in that same account).

REPEAT:  Keep an eye out for biotechs; they are building momentum and often do well in January. 

Ticker Symbol

Type

 

Notes

MO, Altria Group

LONG-INT

Sell some MO even though 8% dividend coming

GS, Goldman Sachs

LONG-SWI

Sit on sidelines; wait.

USG, US Gypsum

LONG-SWI

Should move up more

AAPL, Apple Cmptr

LONG-SWI

1-2 more days long, then consider selling

MS, Morgan Stanley

LONG-INT

Dead money for a while; watch

TRA, Terra Indust.

LONG-INT

Sell soon; set tight stop loss

POT, Potash

LONG-SWI

Too late; DELETE

IBM, Int’l Bus. Mach

LONG-SWI

Watch this closely to buy long this week

FCX, Freeport McM

LONG-INT

Moving up nicely; hold, stop at $30

BNI, Burlington Nrth

LONG-SWI

Small long; still time to buy

MOS, Mosaic

LONG-SWI

Sell Wednesday

AGU, Agrium

LONG-SWI

Consider selling around 36-37 on this rebound; hold

XTO, XTO Energy

LONG-SWI

Watch and wait for buy entry--DELETE

RIMM, Research

LONG-INT

 

BRKB, Berkshire

LONG-SWI

Up 445 pts or 19.2% today; sell tomorrow

COG, Cabot Oil

LONG-INT

Looking good, responded to rise in oil prices; hold

BIDU, Baidu

LONG-INT

Bad sell; was too oriented toward selling; set $140 alarm

X, US Steel

LONG-SWI

Watch again for buy entry

RIG, TransOcean

LONG-INT

Sell soon!

PBR, Petrobras

LONG-INT

Brazilian oil company

JPM, JP Morgan

LONG-SWI

Hold if long

BAC, Bank of Amer

LONG-SWI

Too late to buy now.

STI, Suntrust Bank

LONG-SWI

No trade here.

WFC, Wells Fargo

LONG-SWI

Keep selling gradually, maybe 30% left for Thursday?

KEY, Keybank

LONG-SWI

Keep selling gradually, maybe 30% left for Thursday?

USB, US Bancorp

LONG-SWI

Keep selling gradually, maybe 30% left for Thursday?

HUM, Humana

LONG-INT

Looking good; hold

AET, Aetna Ins

LONG-INT

Looking good; hold

UNH, United Health

LONG-INT

Looking good; hold

MGLN, Magellan

LONG-INT

Looking good; hold

GE, General Electric

LONG-INT

Up 5% today; sell next 2 days if trade, hold if intermed.

OEX, S&P 100

LONG-INT

Long call options; Aug 330 calls; hold

PRU, Prudential

LONG-INT

Looking good; hold for a few more days?

MET, Metropolitan

LONG-INT

Looking good; hold for a few more days?

HIG, Hartford

LONG-INT

Looking good; hold for a few more days?

PFG, Principal Finan

LONG-INT

Looking good; hold for a few more days?

CME. CME Group

LONG-INT

Breaking out?

AZO, Autozones

LONG-INT

Auto Parts doing well to repair cars; hold

AAPL, Apple Cmptr

LONG-SWI

Sell next day or two?

COKE, Coca Cola

LONG-SWI

Another 1 – 2 days left on upside, gradually sell

SWI (SWING): 2-7 days INT: Intermediate term position 8 days to several months.  Open Price:  price paid on opening long position or price sold on short position.  Bold notes on table above represent changes from previous day.

Thoughts:  Best odds only, be decisive, aggressive, mentally flexible, stay in position size, don’t overtrade and wait a little longer to buy and wait a little longer to sell.  You will find that will make you more money on your trades.  Trade what you see, not what you hope for.  Intermediate and swing trades are really important to have trailing stop losses set.

Don’t trade unless the setup is there for you, then use the charts to tell you when the odds are heavily in your favor.  Don’t force anything to work for you, let the setups develop and then take advantage of that.  Be patient.  Stay in position sizes without letting any intraday trade represent no more than 10-15% of your total account value.  As you build your account, your position size percentage should get smaller and smaller to lower your risk.

Have a great day and I’ll talk to you tomorrow.

 

For more tips and information about Stock Market Education, please check out day trading strategies.