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Trades Only Institutional Investors Get To See

I predict earnings surprises for companies in the Russell 1000 for Institutional Investors.

My track record: 60% of my calls have had a positive return. The average return per trade is 1% for a 2 day hold.

Why earnings surprises Like Willie Sutton said about robbing banks, "because that's where the money is." Stock prices move th emost on earnings day because of earnings surprises. Up or down. It's almost pure Alpha.

My System: It is based on fundamentals (i.e. not technicals).

What to expect Each week, prior to earnings releases, I will publish: company, position to take (long or short), and specific dates to open/close the position.

Note: Be advised that actual earnings release dates may vary from those I post. It is up to you to confirm the actual dates. The results tallied here are based on the actual release dates.

Calculating Returns For simplicity sake, returns will be calculated as the difference between the closing price on the day the position was opened and the closing price on the day the position was closed. All trades are opened the day before (regardless of earnings release before or after market close) and closed 2 trading days after release.

Good luck!

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NOTE: No performance update this week: half the positions are open through Monday.

WEEK S&P 500 RETURN SOUTHBAY RETURN (AVG. PER TRADE) # Trades Notes
20-Jan -2.66% 1.69% 32  
27-Jan -0.39% 1.03% 37  
3-Feb 0.79% 0.82% 30  
10-Feb 2.34% 1.29% 31  
17-Feb -0.16% -2.01% 20  
24-Feb 1.25% -0.75% 25  
3-Mar 1.02% 2.14% 6  
10-Mar -1.97% 2.41% 5  
17-Mar 1.41% -0.89% 5  
24-Mar -0.48% -2.30% 4 Due to copy/paste error, the calls for GME & RHT were reversed. Data given to Hedge Funds was correct and they enjoyed effectively the opposite (+2.8%)
31-Mar 0.40% 6.90% 1  
7-Apr -2.65% 1.26% 1  
14-Apr 2.71% -1.73% 9  
21-Apr -0.09% 1.05% 50  
28-Apr 0.94% -2.06% 38  
5-May -0.14% 1.62% 19  
12-May -0.03% -6.58% 8  
19-May 1.55% 1.81% 12  
26-May 1.21% -4.42% 3  
2-Jun 1.34% -3.29% 5 SJM finally released
9-Jun -0.68% 1.53% 4 Had the wrong dates for MW - posted Friday AFTER earnings release on Thursday so trade could not have happened.
16-Jun 1.39% -1.73% 5 KBR finally released earnings
23-Jun -0.10% -0.95% 4  
30-Jun 1.22% 0.00% 1 PAYX released
7-Jul -0.86% 4.87% 2  
14-Jul 0.51% 2.12% 5  
21-Jul 0.01% 0.83% 21 ALB & CHH did not report this week
28-Jul -2.68% 1.25% 14 ALB released
4-Aug 0.33% 0.39% 15 CHH Released. TWX cancelled acquisition monkey hammered the results
11-Aug prelim 1.19%   10 ADSK beats revenues, beats earnings, raises guidance, gets slapped down hard. Makes sense in a Bizarro Universe.
SYMBOL EARNINGS RELEASE DATE OPEN POSITION DATE CLOSE POSITION DATE CALL
PETM 8/18/2014 8/15/2014 8/20/2014 Long
SHLD 8/18/2014 8/15/2014 8/20/2014 Long
AEO 8/18/2014 8/15/2014 8/20/2014 Short
TOL 8/19/2014 8/18/2014 8/21/2014 Long
TJX 8/19/2014 8/18/2014 8/21/2014 Short
HPQ 8/20/2014 8/19/2014 8/22/2014 Long
SNPS 8/20/2014 8/19/2014 8/22/2014 Short
BRCD 8/21/2014 8/20/2014 8/25/2014 Long
MRVL 8/21/2014 8/20/2014 8/25/2014 Long
TIF 8/21/2014 8/20/2014 8/25/2014 Long
WSM 8/21/2014 8/20/2014 8/25/2014 Long
PDCO 8/21/2014 8/20/2014 8/25/2014 Short