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The Trading Week: Nov. 22 - Nov. 26

|Includes: SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), EEA, GBB, GOLD, JYN, QQQ, UDN, USD
Nov. 19, 2010 ( – The Thanksgiving holiday-shortened week ahead will be filled with important economic data from the world’s major industrialized nations, but the U.S. economic growth and housing market reports will take the center stage.

In preparation for the new trading week, here is a list of the Top 10 spotlight economic events that will move the markets around the globe. 

1.    EUR- Euro-zone Composite Manufacturing and Services PMI- Purchasing Managers Indexes, two leading indicators of economic conditions measuring the activity of purchasing managers in the manufacturing and services sectors, Tues., Nov. 23, 4:00 am, ET.  

The preliminary flash estimate of the Euro-zone Composite PMI could signal a slowdown, with the manufacturing index forecasted to pull back to 54.4 from 54.6 along with a retreat in the services index to 53.2 from 53.3.

2.    CAD- Canada CPI- Consumer Price Index, the main measure of inflation, Tues., Nov. 23, 7:00 am, ET.

Rising inflationary pressures could improve the odds for the Bank of Canada to consider extending their campaign of interest rate hikes in the near future as the inflation gauge is forecast to increase by 0.2% m/m. 

3.    USD- U.S. GDP- Gross Domestic Product, the main measure of economic activity and growth in the world’s largest economy, Tues., Nov. 23, 8:30 am, ET.

The main spotlight economic event of the week will bring the second estimate of the U.S. Q3 GDP which is forecast to revise the U.S. economic growth higher to 2.4% in the third quarter, up from the preliminary estimate of 2.0% and better than the 1.7% growth in Q2 2010.  

4.    USD- U.S. Existing Home Sales, the main gauge of the condition of the U.S. housing market measuring the number of closed sales of previously constructed homes, condominiums and co-ops, Tues., Nov. 23, 10:00 am, ET.  

After a few months of improvement, the sales of existing homes could inch lower to 4.5 M in October from 4.53 M in September.   

5.    USD- U.S. FOMC- Federal Open Market Committee Meeting Minutes, a comprehensive report of the Fed’s meeting that could provide an outlook on the economy, interest rates and future monetary policy, Tues., Nov. 23, 2:00 pm, ET.  

The minutes are expected to offer more details on the Fed’s QE2 decision and to confirm the committee’s cautious outlook on the economy.  

6.     EUR- Germany IFO Institute Business Climate and Expectations Index, a leading indicator of economic conditions and business expectations in the Euro-zone’s largest economy, Wed., Nov. 24, 4:00 am, ET.  

Following the better-than-expected ZEW survey, the German IFO index could also see an improvement with a reading of 107.7 from 107.6.

7.    GBP- U.K. GDP- Gross Domestic Product, the main measure of economic activity and growth, Wed., Nov. 24, 4:30 am, ET.

The revised estimate of the U.K. Q3 GDP should confirm that the U.K. economy grew by 0.8% q/q in the third quarter compared with 1.2% in Q2 2010. 

8.    USD- U.S. Durable Goods Orders, a leading indicator of economic activity measuring durable goods orders placed with domestic manufacturers, and U.S. Personal Income and Outlays, a measure of the income received and purchases made by consumers, released along with the Personal Consumption and Expenditures Price Index- a leading indicator of inflation preferred by the Fed because it measures a variable basket of goods and services, as opposed to the CPI-Consumer Price Index which measures a fixed basket of goods and services, Wed., Nov. 24, 8:30 am, ET.

Despite of the U.S. economy gaining some traction after the summer slowdown, the orders for durable goods could decline by 1.4% m/m in October from the 3.5% m/m increase in the month before. The Core PCE Index is forecast to show inflationary pressures in the U.S. picking up by 0.2% m/m in October from the flat 0% previous reading, while consumer spending rises by 0.4% m/m from 0.2% in September. 

9.    USD- U.S. New Home Sales, an important gauge of housing market conditions measuring the number of newly constructed homes with a committed sale during the previous month, Wed., Nov. 24, 10:00 am, ET.

The U.S. new home sales could offer a glimpse of hope from the U.S. housing market with an increase by up to 320 K in October from 307 K in September. However, in light of last week’s disappointing housing starts report, the potential for weaker-than-expected new home sales should not be excluded. 

10.     JPY- Japan CPI- Consumer Price Index, the main measure of inflation preferred by the Bank of Japan, Thurs., Nov. 25, 6:30 pm, ET.    

With forecasts expecting the inflation gauge to stay below 0%, deflation would be likely to continue to be a major concern for the Japanese economy as the CPI registers another 0.6% y/y decline in October.