The Kamakura Risk Information Services version 5.0 Jarrow-Chava reduced form default probability model is based a formula that makes default predictions using a sophisticated combination of financial ratios, stock price history, and macro-economic factors. The version 5.0 model was estimated over the period from 1990 to 2008, and includes the insights of the worst part of the recent credit crisis. Kamakura default probabilities are based on 1.76 million observations and more than 2000 defaults. Free trials are available at Info@Kamakuraco.com. An overview of the full suite of Kamakura default probability models is available here.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.