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A Historical Perspective On Iconix Brand Group Bonds Due 2016 And 2018

|Includes: Iconix Brand Group, Inc. (ICON)

icon This graph, provided by Kamakura Corporation using daily average traded prices from TRACE, shows the bond prices for the Iconix bond issues due 2016 (in green) and 2018 (in blue). The good news is that there has been an upward trend in prices for the last few days. The concerning issue is how much more the 2018 bonds have deteriorated in price than the 2016 bonds. It is this price differential that is most helpful in implying the market's view of default risk. When bond prices converge to a common price well under par, it is a sign that the market views default as imminent. When the prices diverge, as we see above, the implied default probabilities are expected to rise between 2016 and 2018.

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.