We have been warning our premium subscribers of our fear the market will experience a hard sell off in August or September, retesting the low of 1010 set on July 1. In our letter to Buy, Sell, Hold subscribers last night, we said we are not as convinced lately this must occur although we still believe it is possible.
A chart of the S&P 500 may help explain our concern. This is a “point and finger” chart that helps us identify the trend in the market.
The columns of X’s are uptrends, and the 0’s are when the market is going down. The chart has the big past trends; the red line identifies the downtrend in late ’08 and early ’09. Then the blue line shows the uptrend that began in March of ’09
The question we are asking is, “Did the uptrend end in April ’10? Or to put it another way, “How long before a Red Line appears above last four months?” A red line would signify the tops of any rallies in a downward trending market. We could drew a straight line from the top at the end of April (4 & 5 signify month in top of columns) sloping downward across the tops of the columns to the present. We could then draw a line from the bottom of the column at 7/1/10 sloping upward across the bottoms of the columns.
These two lines form a cone that will meet in the next few days (weeks?). The market is going to have to push through one of these two intermediate trend lines. Which will it be, up or down? When one of the trends is violated, we expect the movement to be aggressive because it will verify a new short term trend for traders.
One hint; StockCharts automatically calculates a value. In this chart it is (drum roll please), Bearish Price Objective 1010.0 Like the TV commercial says “What do I know; I’m just the 300 pound Gorilla in the room!”
Our investing advice today, watch your stop losses.
Disclosure: No Positions