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Nifty has been forming "Rising Wedge" (RW) with Overbought status... it did break the RW on 22/03/2010 on the RBI policy but buying comes at lower levels. since then it is moving up with resistance at the lower line of RW. Today it break the lower line but couldn't sustain above it.
15EMA is at 5195 which could provide a good support.
EW View, we are on the 3rd wave and we can target 5460 in the 5th wave (123.6% of the recent fall of 5310 to 4675), in between we will see 4th wave which can be upto 15EMA i.e. 5195

EW Broader View

Above is the broader view of EW for Nifty.
Nifty has made high in Jan 2008 and low in Oct 2008. we made double bottom in March2009 and have started the upmove. April2010 is the 13th month from March.
If we calculate the 78.6% retracement of total fall of Jan2008 to Oct2008 (6357 to 2253) it comes at 5478. This also coincides with the above level of 5460.

I expect nifty to start moving down in the month of April2010.

Disclosure: no positions