Please Note: Blog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors.

private investor

ANTARES PHARMA (AIS)  I  believe  offers  the  best  risk / reward  profile I  have  seen  in  years  and is a pioneer in the field of drug delivery - (Realizing  it is, sometimes, almost as important how a drug enters the body as the drug itself). Utilizing existing FDA approved drugs and creating a better efficacy and safety (side effect) profiles  thru ANTARES patented drug delivery systems.  I like ANTARES PHARMA (AIS)  &nbsp...  the  following  reasons.

 Antares has three delivery platforms: (1) Injectable Devices (2) Transdermal Gel (3) Fast
Melt Oral Disintegrating Tablets.
 
In the Injectable Device area AIS has several opportunities - The closest and potentially
most lucrative are 4 Injectable Device licensing deals (covering 5 products) with TEVA
(largest generic drug company in the world - Israel based) - CEO of Antares stated publicly that the TEVA / AIS deals have become progressively more lucrative for
AIS. ---
 
Regarding the first deal with TEVA which is for Human Growth Hormone (HGH) -
 
1.   "The HGH market in the US is $1 billion a year
2.    I estimated that TEVA could capture about 10% of this market, or $100 million
   ... a  year.&nbs...
3.   I estimated the royalty to AIS from TEVA mid single digets and used 5%
     (which is $5 million a year to AIS) 4.   This is $5 million or 8 cents for each
     (undiluted) share of AIS.
   ... ($5 million : 67 million shares)
5.   Given a 20 X Price to earnings multiple 
     that is $1.60 a share in value to AIS from that deal alone.
     [Now I know that is a great over-simplification and there are operating costs
     to come out of revenue - but from a royalty stream of income, most comes
     to the bottom line]. I was told at the conference - my number had no major
     flaws.
CONSIDERING THE ADDITIONAL THREE TEVA DEALS TO BE AT LEAST AS GOOD, OR BETTER) - THEN USING $1 FOR EACH OF 3 REMAINING TEVA DEALS  - AIS HAS A POTENTIAL OF $4++ DOLLARS A SHARE IN THE 4 TEVA RELATED LICENSING DEALS.
I know they must get thru the FDA - and the value is from "future earnings" and should be discounted to present, etc. - but that alone is overwhelming
for a 50 cent stock.
 
 Now - look at the GEL opportunity:
 
AIS OWNS ELESTRIN (A gel to relieive symptoms in menopausal women - this
was recently approved by the FDA as the "Lowest Effective Dose" drug with an excellent efficacy and safety profile)
Elestrin was first licensed to BioSante Pharma who sub-licensed to Azur Pharma.
Azur just began a marketing program and AIS received about a 5% royalty on
product sales..
IMPORTANT TO NOTE:  A Company called Vivus developed an Estrogen Hormone Replacement Spray... in 2007 and licensed it to K-V Pharma for $150 million - up-front and sales milestone payments that would add an additional $30 million. This is a transdermal product and I believe not nearly as good as Elestrin - So if EvaMist was worth $150 million up-front (and potentially $180 million) -- IS  Elestrin not worth $1 a share in value to AIS stock.
Also AIS has exclusive world-wide rights to Elestrin outside of North America.
ST. LOUIS, March 30 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- KV Pharmaceutical Company (NYSE: KVa/KVb) announced today that it has entered into an agreement with California-based VIVUS, Inc. for the purchase of U.S. marketing rights to EvaMist(NYSE:TM), a novel new estrogen transdermal spray that has been developed to deliver estradiol in a convenient easy-to-use dosage form for the treatment of vasomotor symptoms associated with menopause. Under the terms of the all-cash transaction, KV agreed to pay $10 million at closing and to make an additional payment of approximately $140 million at the time of final approval from the FDA. There are also two, one-time milestone payments tied to the net sales of the product. $10 million will be paid if the product achieves $100 million in net sales in a market year and up to $20 million will be paid if the product achieves $200 million sales in a market year.
 
AIS has licensed their Female Sexual Dysfunction Drug - LibiGel to BioSante Pharma for sales within North America. (AIS has exclusive rights in the rest of the world).
BioSante has all financial [and other] responsibility for gaining approval for LibiGel in
the US. AIS bears non of these costs (expected to exceed $20 million) - yet has rights to
all BioSante's data for AIS' use in gaining approvals in Europe.
BioSante has (in addition to Elestrin) - basically, nothing more, than a license for LibiGel
in the US.YET - BioSante has triple the market cap of AIS (in a sustained price increase on good volume over months) -
CONSIDERING THE ABOVE - IS IT NOT APPROPRIATE TO GIVE, AT LEAST,
$1 A SHARE IN LIBI-GEL VALUE TO AIS STOCK ??
Keep in mind that: As one of many examples:  AARP Magazine (largest circulation in the world) in a December 2007 article entitled "Will there ever be a Pink Viagra" referring to a female sexual dysfunction drug and said that such a drug "Would be the Holy Grail of the Pharmaceutical Industry" - and if LibiGel gains FDA approval it will be the first such approved drug in the United States.
 
Anturol is AIS' gel for overactive bladder. AIS controls world wide rights to this drug,
and they are in phase 3 FDA trials, after a great result in Phase 2 trials. The market for
an Overactive Bladder drug is in the multi billions of dollars and existing drugs have side effects of Dry Eye, Dry Mouth and Constipation. AIS's Anturol eliminates almost all of
these side effects and should be approved as the "lowest effective dose".
Is this not worth (at least) $1 a share in AIS valuation ?
 
AIS has a licensing deal with JAZZ PHARMA for a Transdermal Gel for Restless Leg
Syndrome - This has advance since the initial announcement and is "for real". I am reliably advised that this is an important, and a billion dollar market. - - - AIS has a contraception agreement with the Population Council - -
AIS has a "fast melt" oral disintegrating technology which is an excellent technology.
No one I know gives any value in AIS stock to "fast melt" - but CIMA was sold to
Cephalon for $550 million- and CIMA had little more than a "fast melt" product line.
Adding these, (and some others not mentioned here) to the valuation - can their combined contributionbe less than $1 a share.
 
Plus AIS has sufficient cash.
 
In conclusion: I see value like this:
1. First TEVE deal  ------... $1.50
2. Three additional TEVA deals --- $3...
3. Elestrin --------... $1.
4 LibiGel ---------... $1.
5 Anturol  ---... 1.50
6 All other -----------... $1.
 
That is a value of $9 for a stock selling at 50 cents and I used the most conservative of numbers in each and every instance.
 
 NOW HERE IS SOME OF WHAT AIS DOES AND ITS BACKGROUND:
 
A rapidly emerging trend in medicine is better ways to deliver drugs into the body -
In most all cases these are existing drugs - And better delivery can greatly reduce, or eliminate,
side effects and increase efficacy.
Large companies are dedicating very significant resources to this technology  - and small entrepreneurial firms in the field offer outsized returns from drug delivery.
Parade Magazine (A Sunday supplement to many major newspapers throughout the country) has a respected weekly columnist (and practicing Physician) Dr. Isadore Rosenfeld - who, in the December 6, 2007 issue featured, in his opinion; - the five most exciting medical breakthroughs of 2007.  One of the five was:
 "New Ways To Deliver Drugs Into The Body - Transdermal  [Thru The Skin]  Delivery".
 
ANTARES (AIS) is a drug delivery company which is just now transitioning from a researchand development company to one which commercializes their products.
AIS has three delivery platforms - with significant progress and opportunity in each.
They are outlined just below and discussed in detail - later in this report.
 
1. INJECTABLE  - BOTH REUSABLE AND DISPOSAL
     In this area their largest and closest opportunities are with TEVA
     PHARMACEUTICALS.
2.  TRANSDERMAL (THRU THE SKIN) GELS. 
    In this area they have several opportunities - The largest and closest three are:
   1. Elestrin  - Hormone Replacement Gel - Received final FDA approval in 2007.
   2. Anturol  - Overactive Bladder - In phase 3 clinical trials.
   3. LibiGel  - In phase 3 clinical trials
 
3.  FAST MELT TECHNOLOGY
    This is AIS' least contribution division.
 
PRODUCTS AND BENEFITS IN GREATER DETAIL:
 
 (1). ELESTRIN:
Beginning around middle age, many women develop very significant
problems of moderate to severe hot flashes (vasomotor symptoms)
associated with menopause which is caused by a natural depletion of
estrogen.
Replacement Estrogen greatly helps the problem but oral Estrogen is
processed thru the liver which also controls blood clotting enzymes.
As a consequence the side effect of oral Estrogen are blood clots and
strokes, which while quite rare, can be fatal.
Also replacement Estrogen is associated with increased incidences of
breast cancer.
Until now, many women would rather suffer than take the risks.
AIS has developed an estrogen replacement product (very recently
approved by the FDA and now available by prescription) called
ELESTRIN - which is administered via a Transdermal Gel which is
absorbed thru the skin - and since it is not processed in the liver -
the chance for blood clots and/or strokes are eliminated.
Also ELESTRIN has been fully approved by the FDA as the
" lowest effective dose " and the lower the dose the less chance
women have of developing breast cancer from treatment.
   The gel is applied as a measured dose from an applicator (not smeared on from a tube) - is absorbed in less than a minute, leaves no film on the skin,is colorless and odorless; and once applied can not be accidentally rubbed or washed off.
    AIS' Transdermal Gel can be thought of as the next generation
of "The Patch" however the patch usually causes significant skin
irritation; and often delivers irregular doses. ELESTRIN causes no
skin problems; and as a daily, measured dose - provides the proper
dose each time.
 (I believe thru my significant research) is the safest and most effective product on the market today to relieve women of this most disturbing impairment to a feeling of well being and good health.
(2). ANTUROL:
A majority of older people suffer from Overactive Bladder -
characterized by urgent, frequent, or uncontrolled urination causing
accidents and/or runs to the bathroom - which is highly inconvenient
and embarrassing. The "gold standard" medication to treat this
problem is Oxybutynin - but the problem here is also side effects-
which are mostly dry mouth, dry eye and constipation (all pretty
miserable). ANTUROL, which is now in a phase 3 (final) clinical
trial with the FDA- (after completing a phase 2 trial with wonderful
results as to efficacy and safety) also utilized AIS' transdermal
gel technology and does not enter the digestive tract and the side
effects are thus eliminated.
It is expected (as with Elestrin) - that when approved by the FDA
probably in early to mid 2009- ANTUROL will be the " lowest effective
dose "  available - And one should always strive to take only enough
medication to correct or alleviate the problem - and no more.
(3).LIBI-GEL:
Is an AIS Transdermal Gel product in Phase 3 FDA clinical trials
(again, after wonderful results in a phase 2 trial) to treat Women's
Sexual Dysfunction. (no, or low percentage, of "satisfying sexual
events").
In an AAPR magazine (November/December 2007)  Ms. Nancy Wartik- 
wrote an article entitled: " Will There Ever Be A Pink Viagra "?
The article discussed Women's Sexual Dysfunction; waning libidos,
vaginal dryness and pain during sexual relations. The article claims
that a cure for such problems&amp... be: "The Holy Grail Of The
Pharmaceutical Industry". 
AIS' Libi-Gel should be the first prescription  product approved for use in the United States to treat this problem  (Procter & Gamble has a Patch product (Intrinsa) approved for use in  Europe - and all my research indicates that Libi-Gel is a superior product.
 
RECENT NEWS PERTINENT TO THE ABOVE
(1) Parade Magazine (supplement to many Sunday Newspapers) has a
respected featured weekly columnist, Dr. Isadore Rosenfeld. In the
December 9, 2007 magazine he reviews his opinion of the "Five Top
Health Breakthroughs of 2007" and one of the five is "A better way
to take medicine" which is "medicine delivered topically - via the skin".
(2) The November/December issue of AARP Magazine (largest
circulation in the world) features an article titled: "Will there ever
be a pink Viagra?" and advises: "if there was a drug to treat
women's sexual dysfunction, it would be the "Holy Grail" of the
Pharmaceutical industry. [Antares has a drug in phase 3 clinical trials 
before the FDA which will probably be the first such approved drug in
the United States].
(3) On January 2, 2008 MSNBC carried a story which featured
Antares' Libi-Gel drug for women's sexual dysfunction in an extremely
favorable light.  http://www.msnbc.msn.c...
(4) Popular television personality; Dr. Sanjay Gupta, about a year ago
 discussed testosterone products and their benefits - and at the
end of the presentation discussed its potential benefits for women, and
Libi-Gel is a testosterone product.
http://www.cnn.com/vid...
(5) I could point to several other extremely favorable articles, many in newspaper's "Ask the doctor" type columns. I have never seen a negative
testosterone.cnn
article which disparages either Antares or its field of medicine.
OTHER AIS PLATFORMS:
AIS has an injectable division and a "fast melt" technology - described
below: In the Injectable Division AIS has four licensing agreements
with TEVA (largest generic drug company in the world) which will deliver
TEVA drugs thru AIS' devices. These drugs must be re-engineered to
work with AIS' devices and require FDA approvals (1 of which is
expected in 2008 and the 2nd & 3rd in 2009).
(1).  Injection Devices  (which would decrease the discomfort of
the injection and improve patient compliance).
Reusable Needle-Free Injectors (Medi-Jector VISION®) deliver
precise medication doses through high-speed, pressurized liquid
penetration of the skin without a needle. These reusable, variable-
dose devices are engineered to last for a minimum of two years and
are designed for easy use, facilitating self-injection with a
disposable syringe to assure safety and efficacy.
Disposable Mini-Needle Injectors (Vibex™) employ the same core
technology developed for the Medi-Jector VISION®, combining a
spring-powered source with a tiny hidden needle in a disposable,
single-use injection system compatible with conventional syringes.
(2). Easy Tec™ Fast Melt Oral Disintegrating Tablets (perfect
for many geriatric & pedritic applications).
Easy Tec™ fast-melt oral disintegrating tablets are designed to help
patients who experience difficulty swallowing pills, tablets or capsules,
while providing the same effectiveness as conventional oral dosage
forms. AIS' tablets feature a “disintegrant addition” that facilitates
the disintegration of an oral drug to promote quick and easy
administration in saliva without water. 
FROM A BUSINESS / INVESTMENT STANDP...:
ANTARES is a publicly traded company on the American Stock
Exchange - symbol - (AIS). I did great due diligence to determine
if the company was honestly managed, is the science credible, is
the market for their products large - was the company well
funded and is the trading volume sufficient to insure liquidity,
etc. All of my research proved overwhelmingly favorable. I have
a large investment in ANTARES (as do many of my Doctor friends who
brought ANTARES to my attention and helped me with my research). 
but other than as an investor, I have no relationship whatsoever
with the company.
  Antares' management is honest and capable. They have excellent
resume's which can easily be verified.  
ANTARES has about $13+  million dollars in cash on hand.
There are about 68 million shares outstanding, which gives it a market
capitalization of about $ 34 million dollars. Similar companies in this
field have market caps several times higher than that of ANTARES -
and I expect, when ANTARES comes to the attention of Fund
managers and the analyst community, they can pretty easily trade at
a price several times the current price. I am certain that with all
the opportunities existing for Antares, their cash position, their
patent protection, etc: the down side risk from here is extremely
small.
ANTARES is currently covered by three prominent analysts and all
have a strong buy recommendation and a price target at least
2-4 times higher than today's price. I personally think AIS could
increase in value by 10 X within the next 12 to 18 months.
 
   Please visit their web site - WWW.ANTARESPHARMA.COM
for further information and confirmation of the information contained
in this letter.