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CTA Ep. IV 8-Oct-13 GBPUSD

Looked at the wave pattern of GBPUSD on the daily chart for the last 4 months and looked for alternatives for a count.

MAIN VIEW:

GBPUSD is in a double 3 pattern: zigzag and a flat.

Wave a ended @ 1.5436 on 25-Jul-13. Wave b ended @ 1.51027 on 02-Aug-13. Wave c ended @ 1.57186 on 21-Aug-13 making the W wave.

Wave X ends @ 1.54309 @ 28-Aug-13.

Wave a', the 1st wave for the flat, ends @ 1.6263 on 1-Oct-13.

GBPUSD appears to be in the midst of a wave b', which is expected to end @ 1.54309. Wave c' will end @ a'.

Trade idea 1: Sell GBPUSD @ market (1.61) with a stop @ 1.624 (0.87% loss), targeting 1.54309 (4.34% gain). Risk/reward = 1:4.99.

Trade idea 2: Buy GBPUSD @ 1.543 with a stop @ 1.513 (risking 1.98%), targeting 1.6263 (5.4% gain). Risk/reward = 1:2.73.

ALTERNATE VIEW:

GBPUSD is in a zigzag pattern. The difference between this view and the main view is wave b'. In this view wave b' is expected to end between 1.596 and 1.56. Assuming wave b' ends on the parallel line wave b & X, wave b' can end around 1.586. Which can place wave c' around 1.665.

Trade idea: Enter long GBPUSD @ 1.586 with a stop @ 1.582 (0.25% loss), targeting 1.665 (4.98% gain). Risk/reward = 1:19.92 This trade is riskier than the main view because the ending of wave b' is uncertain. Thus investors can get stopped out more often than not.