Please Note: Blog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors.

CTA Ep V 9-Oct-13 XAUUSD

I obtained 3 counts from my analysis on XAUUSD and the counts for these are colour coded. Also while doing this I noticed a head & shoulders pattern on the daily chart as well, which to me strengthened my counts.

MAIN VIEW (RED)

The waves between the end of June 2013 and present is a simple A-B-C expanded flat where wave A ended @ 1,433.99 on 28-Aug-13. Wave B is expected to end around the 1,078 region price level (around the same target as the head and shoulders. Wave C is expected to complete around the 1,473 price level.

Trade idea:

Buy XAUUSD @ 1,078 with a stop @ 1,038 (risking 3.78%) with a target of 1,485 (37.78%). Risk/reward = 1:9.99

ALTERNATE VIEW I (GREEN)

XAUUSD is at the early stages of an impulse with wave I ending @ 1,433.99 on 28-Aug-13. Wave II is expected to end between 1,283.15 and 1,224.70 and wave III is expected to end @ 1,476.

Trade idea:

Buy XAUUSD @ 1,254 with a stop @ 1,177.23 (6.52% loss), targeting 1,476 (17.70% gain). Risk/reward = 1:2.71.

ALTERNATE VIEW II (NASDAQ:BLUE)

XAUUSD is in the last stages of a double combination pattern with wave Y expected to end around 1,455.

Trade idea:

Buy XAUUSD @ market (1307) with a stop @ 1280 (risking 2.11%) and targeting 1,455 (11.3% gain). Risk/reward = 1:5.36. This view is the weakest as it assumes that the neckline holds.