Please Note: Blog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors.

CGTS WEEKEND EDITION, 18 July 2009 -- WHAT ARE WEEKLY CHARTS SHOWING?

CLARK'S GATE TIMING SYSTEM ©

WEEKEND EDITION, 18 JULY 2009 -- WHAT ARE WEEKLY CHARTS SHOWING?

I almost hesitate to approach this, since I am emotionally inclined to viewing the current rally in the stock markets as bogus as a reflection of the economic distress we are suffering.  My view is that the 'hot money' uses the markets to get well; and since the 'hot money' is too big to fail -- that is, they have enough gravity to control the direction of the markets -- they get in early, lure the small investors back in to the markets and sell their shares to the 'cold money' coming in. 

The weekly charts are NOT nearly as bearish as the daily charts.  There, I said it.  The momentum of many issues is negative in daily charts -- but not so in weekly charts.  We got many buy signals this weekend in our weekly analysis.  And how accurate is our weekly trading, compared with our daily trading?  Very accurate.

 

CGTS Weekly Trading Portfolio (since March 09)
Weekly Trading System Profits Open Trades Current Costs
9.11% M5 (3) $18,224 20 $200,000
61.36% M5 (7) $116,587 19 $190,000
937.99% M5 (10) $93,799 1 $10,000
47.62% M5 (25) $4,762 1 $10,000
.7% Momentum $2,803 40 $400,000
.01% Momentum #2 $1 1 $10,000
56.15% M4 Plus LTerm $230,199 41 $410,000
19.41% MA5/40 LTerm $62,110 32 $320,000
         
34.1% Totals $528,484 155 $1,550,000
         

Note: M5 (10) has such a high success rate -- 937.99% -- because its profit ($93,799) is measure against its current cost ($10,000 - one active trade).

Let's look at the S&P 500 (GSPC) in daily and weekly charts to see how different they look.  Let's throw in a monthly chart of the same issue to see how complicated these pictures can become.

GSPC dailyGSPC weeklyGSPC Monthly

This all makes the picture as clear as mud, I guess.  The daily chart looks like the S&P 500 is ready to pull back; the weekly chart looks like a continued rally is almost certain; and the monthly chart looks short-term overbought, intermediate-term oversold, and long-term negative.  What is a trader to do?  Do we trust our daily charts, since they should be the most 'up-to-date', the first to turn?  Or trust our weekly charts, since their track record is so strong?  I am not as bearish as I was last week, because of these weekly charts.  I do not believe the economies are turning back up.  For those who know my philosophy, I think our economy will struggle through contraction until about 2019.  Still, the stock markets have really nothing to do with reality.  The stock markets are bubble-systems, pure and simple.  Incoming money is the helium that inflates the bubble.  The whole goal of the Bush/Obama/Paulson, Bernanke strategy was to get more money back in to the hands of the 'hot money' masters of the universe, so that they could create another bubble.  The plan is for Americans to service their debt through stock market profits.  (The vast majority of American families currently have no excess capital to gamble in the New/Old Goldman Sachs World Casino in New York -- The Vampire Squid -- after having lost 1/2 of their total wealth last year following the lead of the 'Masters of the Universe'....all is well, all is well.

We read that Americans are saving at an impressive rate.  Are they paying down their debt?  Not yet.  Clusterstocks' 'Chart of the Day' shows American debts are actually increasing -- I'm assuming this is driven by government spending -- and not by new loans.  Any bank loaning money at the beginning of a depression, in fact, especially after the catastrophe of this past decade, should be nationalized.  Government officials demanding banks loan money are talking out of both sides of their mouths: the banks need to be loaning the money we gave them; and, the banks need to understand risk again.  You can't have it both ways.  Deflation (and lower prices in housing, health-care, education, automobiles...) is what we need to rebuild the economy -- but deflation will be painful, and threatens ALL the governments in the world if it gets bad enough.  That's why we have all the 'green shoots' being seen and magnified by governments and financial leaders around the world.  They are looking to save their own jobs, their own comfortable existences.

My view is that China is a 'counterfeit country' through and through; and its GDP growth is also counterfeit, based on false statistics and government-inspired bubble blowing, through cheap loans.  I've read that EVERY Chinese company has three sets of books: one for the banks; one for the tax-representative; and one for management.  Yes: we can put a lot of trust in a country run in this manner.

Clusterstock Debt

 

We do have a lot of buy signals this weekend (see below).  We think buyiing will probably come back in to the markets.  The first half of the week should probably see some selling.  But the weekly indicators suggest higher prices.

I'll illustrate one buy signal from each group of trading systems in charts below.

 

Weekly CGTS Trading Signals
7/18/09    
Weekly
   
M5 3 Trading System short term  
ECH 47.25 enter long
QCOM 47.4 enter long
FXA 80.264 enter long
EOC 50.32 enter long
INTC 18.79 enter long
EDU 62.98 enter long
STJ 38.96 enter long
     
M5 7 Trading System short term  
ECH 47.25 enter long
QCOM 47.4 enter long
FXA 80.264 enter long
BLK 179.79 enter long
NDX 1527.26 enter long
PCLN 116.08 enter long
XCI 718.04 enter long
EMC 13.92 enter long
MSFT 24.49 enter long
TYX 4.529 enter long
ADBE 31.02 enter long
EPP 32.64 enter long
GS 156.84 enter long
HSI 18805.66 enter long
IBM 115.42 enter long
YHOO 16.84 enter long
RRGTX 5.75 enter long
BMY 20 enter long
CSCO 20.51 enter long
PDE 24.94 enter long
SAP 42.87 enter long
AAPL 151.75 enter long
HLF 31.7 enter long
RGR 13.99 enter long
VIX 24.34 enter short
QID 29.771 enter short
PSQ 54.29 enter short
     
M5 10 Trading System short term  
EWM 9.22 enter long
QCOM 47.4 enter long
NDX 1527.26 enter long
XCI 718.04 enter long
ADBE 31.02 enter long
IBM 115.42 enter long
YHOO 16.84 enter long
CSCO 20.51 enter long
SAP 42.87 enter long
QID 29.771 enter short
PSQ 54.29 enter short
     
Momentum Trad Syst Int Term  
XCI 718.04 enter long
EPP 32.64 enter long
CSCO 20.51 enter long
EMC 13.92 enter long
NDX 1527.26 enter long
SEMGX 13.57 enter long
VIX 24.34 enter short
QID 29.771 enter short
     
Momentum #2 Tr Syst Long-Term  
SJPNX 8.37 enter long
     

 

ECHQCOMXCIcscoSJPNX

More information on this system can be found at

www.home.mindspring.com/~mclark7/CGTS09.htm


Portfolio of CGTS Trades for 09 (updated weekly) can be found at:

www.home.mindspring.com/~mclark7/cgtsportfolio09.htm


Those interested in reading a draft of 'Turn Out the Lights', my description of the metaphysical causes of the financial collapse, can find it at:

www.hoalantrangallery.com/Turnoutlights.htm

 

Michael J. Clark
Clark's Gate Timing System
Hanoi, Vietnam
84 4 221 92210

Disclosure: the author personally owns none of the issues mentioned in this article.